In North Carolina's 11th Congressional District, trader consensus gives Democrats a 56.5% implied probability over Republicans at 48.0% in the general election pitting incumbent Rep. Chuck Edwards against challenger Jamie Ager, driven by Ager's decisive March 3 primary victory (65%), superior fundraising ($941K raised vs. Edwards' $639K as of February), and Inside Elections' March shift from Solid to Likely Republican amid Democratic leads on the statewide generic congressional ballot (e.g., 48-44%). The race remains tight due to the district's R+5 Cook PVI, Edwards' 2024 57% win, and incumbency edge in western North Carolina strongholds like Asheville. Separation could come from Q1 FEC filings, public polls, candidate debates, or shifts in President Trump's NC approval (currently 43%). Resolution follows official November 3 results or certified recount.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
共和党
60%
民主党
44%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
共和党
$0 Vol.
60%
民主党
$0 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In North Carolina's 11th Congressional District, trader consensus gives Democrats a 56.5% implied probability over Republicans at 48.0% in the general election pitting incumbent Rep. Chuck Edwards against challenger Jamie Ager, driven by Ager's decisive March 3 primary victory (65%), superior fundraising ($941K raised vs. Edwards' $639K as of February), and Inside Elections' March shift from Solid to Likely Republican amid Democratic leads on the statewide generic congressional ballot (e.g., 48-44%). The race remains tight due to the district's R+5 Cook PVI, Edwards' 2024 57% win, and incumbency edge in western North Carolina strongholds like Asheville. Separation could come from Q1 FEC filings, public polls, candidate debates, or shifts in President Trump's NC approval (currently 43%). Resolution follows official November 3 results or certified recount.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In North Carolina's 11th Congressional District, trader consensus gives Democrats a 56.5% implied probability over Republicans at 48.0% in the general election pitting incumbent Rep. Chuck Edwards against challenger Jamie Ager, driven by Ager's decisive March 3 primary victory (65%), superior fundraising ($941K raised vs. Edwards' $639K as of February), and Inside Elections' March shift from Solid to Likely Republican amid Democratic leads on the statewide generic congressional ballot (e.g., 48-44%). The race remains tight due to the district's R+5 Cook PVI, Edwards' 2024 57% win, and incumbency edge in western North Carolina strongholds like Asheville. Separation could come from Q1 FEC filings, public polls, candidate debates, or shifts in President Trump's NC approval (currently 43%). Resolution follows official November 3 results or certified recount.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In North Carolina's 11th Congressional District, trader consensus gives Democrats a 56.5% implied probability over Republicans at 48.0% in the general election pitting incumbent Rep. Chuck Edwards against challenger Jamie Ager, driven by Ager's decisive March 3 primary victory (65%), superior fundraising ($941K raised vs. Edwards' $639K as of February), and Inside Elections' March shift from Solid to Likely Republican amid Democratic leads on the statewide generic congressional ballot (e.g., 48-44%). The race remains tight due to the district's R+5 Cook PVI, Edwards' 2024 57% win, and incumbency edge in western North Carolina strongholds like Asheville. Separation could come from Q1 FEC filings, public polls, candidate debates, or shifts in President Trump's NC approval (currently 43%). Resolution follows official November 3 results or certified recount.
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