Eric Pratt holds a commanding lead in the MN-02 Republican primary market because his main rival, Tyler Kistner, withdrew in mid-April 2026 citing a Marine Corps Reserve deployment, leaving Pratt as the sole established candidate. Pratt, a four-term state senator, secured the district GOP endorsement at the May 2 convention with 65 percent of delegate votes after a brief late entry by Jeremy Westby, who subsequently dropped out and endorsed him. The August 11 primary now features limited opposition, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the current pricing. Potential shifts could arise if additional candidates file before deadlines or if late developments alter delegate or voter alignments ahead of the vote.