The solidly Republican character of Michigan's 5th congressional district, reflected in its R+13 partisan voting index and Donald Trump's 63% share there in 2024, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 90.5%. Incumbent Tim Walberg faces no primary opposition after the April filing deadline and holds a large fundraising advantage over Democratic primary candidate Christian Vukasovich. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican, consistent with Walberg's 65.7% general-election margin in the prior cycle. A Green Party nominee advanced but presents no meaningful threat. Shifts in implied probability would require late-cycle developments such as major scandals, health events affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
91%
民主党
9%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$2,654 Vol.
91%
民主党
$2,265 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The solidly Republican character of Michigan's 5th congressional district, reflected in its R+13 partisan voting index and Donald Trump's 63% share there in 2024, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 90.5%. Incumbent Tim Walberg faces no primary opposition after the April filing deadline and holds a large fundraising advantage over Democratic primary candidate Christian Vukasovich. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican, consistent with Walberg's 65.7% general-election margin in the prior cycle. A Green Party nominee advanced but presents no meaningful threat. Shifts in implied probability would require late-cycle developments such as major scandals, health events affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$4,920終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The solidly Republican character of Michigan's 5th congressional district, reflected in its R+13 partisan voting index and Donald Trump's 63% share there in 2024, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 90.5%. Incumbent Tim Walberg faces no primary opposition after the April filing deadline and holds a large fundraising advantage over Democratic primary candidate Christian Vukasovich. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican, consistent with Walberg's 65.7% general-election margin in the prior cycle. A Green Party nominee advanced but presents no meaningful threat. Shifts in implied probability would require late-cycle developments such as major scandals, health events affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$4,920終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The solidly Republican character of Michigan's 5th congressional district, reflected in its R+13 partisan voting index and Donald Trump's 63% share there in 2024, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 90.5%. Incumbent Tim Walberg faces no primary opposition after the April filing deadline and holds a large fundraising advantage over Democratic primary candidate Christian Vukasovich. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican, consistent with Walberg's 65.7% general-election margin in the prior cycle. A Green Party nominee advanced but presents no meaningful threat. Shifts in implied probability would require late-cycle developments such as major scandals, health events affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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