Incumbent Rep. Jamie Raskin's commanding position in Maryland's 8th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic stronghold encompassing most of Montgomery County, drives trader consensus at 93% for the Democratic Party ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Raskin filed for reelection on February 1, securing his nomination path in a district where he has won by wide margins, including over 60% in recent cycles, bolstered by incumbency advantage and consistent polling trends favoring Democrats. Republican challengers like Cheryl Riley have emerged with grassroots campaigns emphasizing America First priorities, but face structural barriers in this D+30 lean district rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report. Scenarios to challenge this include a Raskin scandal, primary surprises, low Democratic turnout amid national midterm dynamics, or unprecedented GOP wave, though probabilities remain low at 6.5%. Maryland primaries, expected this spring, will confirm nominees.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$0 Vol.
93%
共和党
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jamie Raskin's commanding position in Maryland's 8th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic stronghold encompassing most of Montgomery County, drives trader consensus at 93% for the Democratic Party ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Raskin filed for reelection on February 1, securing his nomination path in a district where he has won by wide margins, including over 60% in recent cycles, bolstered by incumbency advantage and consistent polling trends favoring Democrats. Republican challengers like Cheryl Riley have emerged with grassroots campaigns emphasizing America First priorities, but face structural barriers in this D+30 lean district rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report. Scenarios to challenge this include a Raskin scandal, primary surprises, low Democratic turnout amid national midterm dynamics, or unprecedented GOP wave, though probabilities remain low at 6.5%. Maryland primaries, expected this spring, will confirm nominees.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jamie Raskin's commanding position in Maryland's 8th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic stronghold encompassing most of Montgomery County, drives trader consensus at 93% for the Democratic Party ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Raskin filed for reelection on February 1, securing his nomination path in a district where he has won by wide margins, including over 60% in recent cycles, bolstered by incumbency advantage and consistent polling trends favoring Democrats. Republican challengers like Cheryl Riley have emerged with grassroots campaigns emphasizing America First priorities, but face structural barriers in this D+30 lean district rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report. Scenarios to challenge this include a Raskin scandal, primary surprises, low Democratic turnout amid national midterm dynamics, or unprecedented GOP wave, though probabilities remain low at 6.5%. Maryland primaries, expected this spring, will confirm nominees.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Jamie Raskin's commanding position in Maryland's 8th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic stronghold encompassing most of Montgomery County, drives trader consensus at 93% for the Democratic Party ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Raskin filed for reelection on February 1, securing his nomination path in a district where he has won by wide margins, including over 60% in recent cycles, bolstered by incumbency advantage and consistent polling trends favoring Democrats. Republican challengers like Cheryl Riley have emerged with grassroots campaigns emphasizing America First priorities, but face structural barriers in this D+30 lean district rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report. Scenarios to challenge this include a Raskin scandal, primary surprises, low Democratic turnout amid national midterm dynamics, or unprecedented GOP wave, though probabilities remain low at 6.5%. Maryland primaries, expected this spring, will confirm nominees.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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