Incumbent Democrat Ed Markey holds a commanding position in trader consensus for the Massachusetts Senate race, with recent polls like the University of New Hampshire survey from mid-February showing him leading likely Republican John Deaton 56%-27% and primary challenger Seth Moulton prevailing 59%-23% in a general matchup. Massachusetts' deep-blue history—no Republican senator elected since 1978—combined with Markey's incumbency and fresh endorsements such as the Human Rights Campaign's backing this week, underpin the 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic winner ahead of the September 1 primaries. While GOP filings remain sparse with only Deaton and Nathan Bech declared, scenarios like a high-profile Republican recruit, Markey's health concerns at age 80 prompting retirement, or a divisive Democratic primary weakening the nominee could narrow the gap before November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$11,935 Vol.
$11,935 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
5%
$11,935 Vol.
$11,935 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$7,404 Vol.
95%
共和党
$4,530 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Ed Markey holds a commanding position in trader consensus for the Massachusetts Senate race, with recent polls like the University of New Hampshire survey from mid-February showing him leading likely Republican John Deaton 56%-27% and primary challenger Seth Moulton prevailing 59%-23% in a general matchup. Massachusetts' deep-blue history—no Republican senator elected since 1978—combined with Markey's incumbency and fresh endorsements such as the Human Rights Campaign's backing this week, underpin the 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic winner ahead of the September 1 primaries. While GOP filings remain sparse with only Deaton and Nathan Bech declared, scenarios like a high-profile Republican recruit, Markey's health concerns at age 80 prompting retirement, or a divisive Democratic primary weakening the nominee could narrow the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
音量
$11,935終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Ed Markey holds a commanding position in trader consensus for the Massachusetts Senate race, with recent polls like the University of New Hampshire survey from mid-February showing him leading likely Republican John Deaton 56%-27% and primary challenger Seth Moulton prevailing 59%-23% in a general matchup. Massachusetts' deep-blue history—no Republican senator elected since 1978—combined with Markey's incumbency and fresh endorsements such as the Human Rights Campaign's backing this week, underpin the 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic winner ahead of the September 1 primaries. While GOP filings remain sparse with only Deaton and Nathan Bech declared, scenarios like a high-profile Republican recruit, Markey's health concerns at age 80 prompting retirement, or a divisive Democratic primary weakening the nominee could narrow the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$11,935終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Ed Markey holds a commanding position in trader consensus for the Massachusetts Senate race, with recent polls like the University of New Hampshire survey from mid-February showing him leading likely Republican John Deaton 56%-27% and primary challenger Seth Moulton prevailing 59%-23% in a general matchup. Massachusetts' deep-blue history—no Republican senator elected since 1978—combined with Markey's incumbency and fresh endorsements such as the Human Rights Campaign's backing this week, underpin the 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic winner ahead of the September 1 primaries. While GOP filings remain sparse with only Deaton and Nathan Bech declared, scenarios like a high-profile Republican recruit, Markey's health concerns at age 80 prompting retirement, or a divisive Democratic primary weakening the nominee could narrow the gap before November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問