Frank Scarpitti maintains a dominant position in trader consensus for the Markham mayoral election due to his incumbency since 2006 and repeated strong re-election margins, including 64 percent in 2022. Nominations closed in late August 2026 with only two challengers—Martin Ross, whose candidacy stems from a long-running backyard rink dispute with city hall, and Stephen Edgell—creating a limited field in this municipal contest. Voting runs online from October 16 to 26 and in person through October 26, with no major late developments reported that have shifted probabilities. Ross holds the next-highest share among named alternatives, though at far lower levels reflecting the challengers’ limited visibility and resources compared with the incumbent’s established record on local infrastructure and economic issues.