Recent foreign investor outflows totaling over 96 trillion won since June, coupled with elevated US Treasury yields above 5% and high oil prices, have driven the KOSPI down nearly 30% from its June 2026 peak near 9,385 to around 6,626, underpinning the 57.5% market-implied probability that it will not set a new all-time high before 2028. Despite record semiconductor earnings—Samsung reported 107 trillion won in third-quarter operating profit—the index has decoupled from rallying US, Japanese, and Taiwanese markets due to concentrated AI memory exposure and liquidity concerns. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming US AI earnings, FOMC decisions, Korean chip company guidance, and shifts in foreign flows that could determine whether earnings momentum overcomes macroeconomic headwinds.