Trader consensus heavily favors no prison time for YouTuber Jack Doherty at 94.7% implied probability, driven by his swift bond release after the confirmed November 2025 Miami Beach arrest on minor drug possession charges—small amounts of marijuana and a controlled substance (initially reported as amphetamine, later referenced as cocaine in court)—plus resisting without violence. As a first-time offender with resources for legal defense, Florida's common diversion programs or probation pleas for such low-level felonies and misdemeanors underpin this strong positioning, with no conviction or sentencing reported since his January 2026 arraignment absence (waived via celebrity status). Upsets could arise from a failed plea deal, confirmed priors, or court no-shows ahead of his next hearing in May 2026, though historical patterns suggest minimal jail risk.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日ジャック・ドハーティ刑務所の時間?
ジャック・ドハーティ刑務所の時間?
実刑なし 94.7%
5年以上 3.8%
2年未満 2.5%
2~5年 2.4%
$18,180 Vol.
$18,180 Vol.
実刑なし
95%
2年未満
2%
2~5年
2%
5年以上
4%
実刑なし 94.7%
5年以上 3.8%
2年未満 2.5%
2~5年 2.4%
$18,180 Vol.
$18,180 Vol.
実刑なし
95%
2年未満
2%
2~5年
2%
5年以上
4%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Jack Doherty in relation to these charges by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in relation to these charges, regardless of any appeals. If the charges are tried separately, this market will stay open until the first sentence has been rendered for all three charges and will resolve based on the cumulative sentence imposed across all three charges. If sentencing has taken place for some, but not all, of these charges on October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on sentencing up to that point.
If Doherty is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if his sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Doherty is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Florida court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日: Nov 20, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Jack Doherty in relation to these charges by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in relation to these charges, regardless of any appeals. If the charges are tried separately, this market will stay open until the first sentence has been rendered for all three charges and will resolve based on the cumulative sentence imposed across all three charges. If sentencing has taken place for some, but not all, of these charges on October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on sentencing up to that point.
If Doherty is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if his sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Doherty is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Florida court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors no prison time for YouTuber Jack Doherty at 94.7% implied probability, driven by his swift bond release after the confirmed November 2025 Miami Beach arrest on minor drug possession charges—small amounts of marijuana and a controlled substance (initially reported as amphetamine, later referenced as cocaine in court)—plus resisting without violence. As a first-time offender with resources for legal defense, Florida's common diversion programs or probation pleas for such low-level felonies and misdemeanors underpin this strong positioning, with no conviction or sentencing reported since his January 2026 arraignment absence (waived via celebrity status). Upsets could arise from a failed plea deal, confirmed priors, or court no-shows ahead of his next hearing in May 2026, though historical patterns suggest minimal jail risk.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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