Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, 85, shows no signs of stepping down or incapacity, maintaining public appearances and issuing directives on foreign policy amid heightened Israel-Iran tensions. The market reflects trader consensus on his entrenched position, anchored by Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26—following Tehran's October 1 missile barrage—which Khamenei declared a strategic success without prompting leadership upheaval. No verifiable health issues or Assembly of Experts signals have emerged in the past 30 days; constitutional succession requires his death or resignation, with son Mojtaba Khamenei rumored but unconfirmed as heir apparent. Traders eye potential escalations, nuclear negotiations under President Pezeshkian, or undisclosed health events as wildcards before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$4,817,712 Vol.
May 31, 2026
3月31日
4%
4月30日
24%
5月31日
31%
6月30日
39%
12月31日
51%
$4,817,712 Vol.
3月31日
$2,738,488 Vol.
4%
4月30日
$1,261,314 Vol.
24%
5月31日
$18,557 Vol.
31%
6月30日
$8,778 Vol.
39%
12月31日
$791,440 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, 85, shows no signs of stepping down or incapacity, maintaining public appearances and issuing directives on foreign policy amid heightened Israel-Iran tensions. The market reflects trader consensus on his entrenched position, anchored by Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26—following Tehran's October 1 missile barrage—which Khamenei declared a strategic success without prompting leadership upheaval. No verifiable health issues or Assembly of Experts signals have emerged in the past 30 days; constitutional succession requires his death or resignation, with son Mojtaba Khamenei rumored but unconfirmed as heir apparent. Traders eye potential escalations, nuclear negotiations under President Pezeshkian, or undisclosed health events as wildcards before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
音量
$4,817,712終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, 85, shows no signs of stepping down or incapacity, maintaining public appearances and issuing directives on foreign policy amid heightened Israel-Iran tensions. The market reflects trader consensus on his entrenched position, anchored by Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26—following Tehran's October 1 missile barrage—which Khamenei declared a strategic success without prompting leadership upheaval. No verifiable health issues or Assembly of Experts signals have emerged in the past 30 days; constitutional succession requires his death or resignation, with son Mojtaba Khamenei rumored but unconfirmed as heir apparent. Traders eye potential escalations, nuclear negotiations under President Pezeshkian, or undisclosed health events as wildcards before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$4,817,712終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, 85, shows no signs of stepping down or incapacity, maintaining public appearances and issuing directives on foreign policy amid heightened Israel-Iran tensions. The market reflects trader consensus on his entrenched position, anchored by Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26—following Tehran's October 1 missile barrage—which Khamenei declared a strategic success without prompting leadership upheaval. No verifiable health issues or Assembly of Experts signals have emerged in the past 30 days; constitutional succession requires his death or resignation, with son Mojtaba Khamenei rumored but unconfirmed as heir apparent. Traders eye potential escalations, nuclear negotiations under President Pezeshkian, or undisclosed health events as wildcards before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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