Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, aged 85 and in power since 1989, remains actively engaged in Iran's governance amid escalating regional tensions, with no confirmed health issues or succession moves in the past 30 days. His recent public statements praising Iran's October 1 missile strikes on Israel and meetings with allies like Hamas leaders underscore continuity, while unverified rumors of illness circulate without primary evidence. The Assembly of Experts holds authority over appointing a successor, a secretive process with potential candidates including Khamenei's son Mojtaba, but institutional stability and regime resilience favor status quo odds. Traders watch for de-escalation signals, sanctions shifts post-US election, or sudden medical announcements that could trigger rapid change.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$4,783,931 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3月31日
6%
4月30日
24%
5月31日
32%
6月30日
40%
12月31日
51%
$4,783,931 Vol.
3月31日
$2,705,992 Vol.
6%
4月30日
$1,259,220 Vol.
24%
5月31日
$18,551 Vol.
32%
6月30日
$8,769 Vol.
40%
12月31日
$791,398 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, aged 85 and in power since 1989, remains actively engaged in Iran's governance amid escalating regional tensions, with no confirmed health issues or succession moves in the past 30 days. His recent public statements praising Iran's October 1 missile strikes on Israel and meetings with allies like Hamas leaders underscore continuity, while unverified rumors of illness circulate without primary evidence. The Assembly of Experts holds authority over appointing a successor, a secretive process with potential candidates including Khamenei's son Mojtaba, but institutional stability and regime resilience favor status quo odds. Traders watch for de-escalation signals, sanctions shifts post-US election, or sudden medical announcements that could trigger rapid change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
音量
$4,783,931終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, aged 85 and in power since 1989, remains actively engaged in Iran's governance amid escalating regional tensions, with no confirmed health issues or succession moves in the past 30 days. His recent public statements praising Iran's October 1 missile strikes on Israel and meetings with allies like Hamas leaders underscore continuity, while unverified rumors of illness circulate without primary evidence. The Assembly of Experts holds authority over appointing a successor, a secretive process with potential candidates including Khamenei's son Mojtaba, but institutional stability and regime resilience favor status quo odds. Traders watch for de-escalation signals, sanctions shifts post-US election, or sudden medical announcements that could trigger rapid change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$4,783,931終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, aged 85 and in power since 1989, remains actively engaged in Iran's governance amid escalating regional tensions, with no confirmed health issues or succession moves in the past 30 days. His recent public statements praising Iran's October 1 missile strikes on Israel and meetings with allies like Hamas leaders underscore continuity, while unverified rumors of illness circulate without primary evidence. The Assembly of Experts holds authority over appointing a successor, a secretive process with potential candidates including Khamenei's son Mojtaba, but institutional stability and regime resilience favor status quo odds. Traders watch for de-escalation signals, sanctions shifts post-US election, or sudden medical announcements that could trigger rapid change.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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