Iowa’s consistent Republican performance in recent federal elections, including strong support for GOP Senate candidates, underpins the 62.5% Republican outcome priced by traders for the open Class II seat. Incumbent Joni Ernst’s decision not to seek a third term created an open primary on June 2, where U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson has consolidated support against Jim Carlin through superior fundraising and endorsements. On the Democratic side, Josh Turek and Zach Wahls remain closely matched ahead of their primary, with general-election surveys showing narrow hypothetical margins. These factors, combined with Iowa’s structural advantages for the eventual Republican nominee, shape the current trader consensus while leaving room for shifts from primary results or turnout patterns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$116,828 Vol.
$116,828 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
63%
民主党
38%
$116,828 Vol.
$116,828 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$53,530 Vol.
63%
民主党
$63,298 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Iowa’s consistent Republican performance in recent federal elections, including strong support for GOP Senate candidates, underpins the 62.5% Republican outcome priced by traders for the open Class II seat. Incumbent Joni Ernst’s decision not to seek a third term created an open primary on June 2, where U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson has consolidated support against Jim Carlin through superior fundraising and endorsements. On the Democratic side, Josh Turek and Zach Wahls remain closely matched ahead of their primary, with general-election surveys showing narrow hypothetical margins. These factors, combined with Iowa’s structural advantages for the eventual Republican nominee, shape the current trader consensus while leaving room for shifts from primary results or turnout patterns.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ET
音量
$116,828終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Iowa’s consistent Republican performance in recent federal elections, including strong support for GOP Senate candidates, underpins the 62.5% Republican outcome priced by traders for the open Class II seat. Incumbent Joni Ernst’s decision not to seek a third term created an open primary on June 2, where U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson has consolidated support against Jim Carlin through superior fundraising and endorsements. On the Democratic side, Josh Turek and Zach Wahls remain closely matched ahead of their primary, with general-election surveys showing narrow hypothetical margins. These factors, combined with Iowa’s structural advantages for the eventual Republican nominee, shape the current trader consensus while leaving room for shifts from primary results or turnout patterns.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$116,828終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa’s consistent Republican performance in recent federal elections, including strong support for GOP Senate candidates, underpins the 62.5% Republican outcome priced by traders for the open Class II seat. Incumbent Joni Ernst’s decision not to seek a third term created an open primary on June 2, where U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson has consolidated support against Jim Carlin through superior fundraising and endorsements. On the Democratic side, Josh Turek and Zach Wahls remain closely matched ahead of their primary, with general-election surveys showing narrow hypothetical margins. These factors, combined with Iowa’s structural advantages for the eventual Republican nominee, shape the current trader consensus while leaving room for shifts from primary results or turnout patterns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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