The open Senate seat created by incumbent Joni Ernst’s decision not to seek re-election has drawn strong Republican interest, with Representative Ashley Hinson consolidating support through superior fundraising and endorsements ahead of the June 2 primary against Jim Carlin. Democratic primary contenders Josh Turek and Zach Wahls remain competitive, with recent surveys showing narrow general-election margins between the likely nominees. Iowa’s consistent Republican lean in federal races and structural advantages for the GOP candidate underpin trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome at 62.5 percent, though upcoming primary results and turnout patterns could still shift positioning before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$116,833 Vol.
$116,833 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
63%
民主党
38%
$116,833 Vol.
$116,833 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$53,535 Vol.
63%
民主党
$63,298 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The open Senate seat created by incumbent Joni Ernst’s decision not to seek re-election has drawn strong Republican interest, with Representative Ashley Hinson consolidating support through superior fundraising and endorsements ahead of the June 2 primary against Jim Carlin. Democratic primary contenders Josh Turek and Zach Wahls remain competitive, with recent surveys showing narrow general-election margins between the likely nominees. Iowa’s consistent Republican lean in federal races and structural advantages for the GOP candidate underpin trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome at 62.5 percent, though upcoming primary results and turnout patterns could still shift positioning before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ET
音量
$116,833終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The open Senate seat created by incumbent Joni Ernst’s decision not to seek re-election has drawn strong Republican interest, with Representative Ashley Hinson consolidating support through superior fundraising and endorsements ahead of the June 2 primary against Jim Carlin. Democratic primary contenders Josh Turek and Zach Wahls remain competitive, with recent surveys showing narrow general-election margins between the likely nominees. Iowa’s consistent Republican lean in federal races and structural advantages for the GOP candidate underpin trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome at 62.5 percent, though upcoming primary results and turnout patterns could still shift positioning before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$116,833終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open Senate seat created by incumbent Joni Ernst’s decision not to seek re-election has drawn strong Republican interest, with Representative Ashley Hinson consolidating support through superior fundraising and endorsements ahead of the June 2 primary against Jim Carlin. Democratic primary contenders Josh Turek and Zach Wahls remain competitive, with recent surveys showing narrow general-election margins between the likely nominees. Iowa’s consistent Republican lean in federal races and structural advantages for the GOP candidate underpin trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome at 62.5 percent, though upcoming primary results and turnout patterns could still shift positioning before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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