President Trump’s January 2026 threats to invoke the Insurrection Act represent the primary driver of trader sentiment on this market. Following an Immigration and Customs Enforcement operation in Minneapolis that resulted in the fatal shooting of a civilian, widespread protests prompted the president to warn via social media that he would deploy active-duty forces if state officials failed to suppress what he described as attacks on federal personnel. This development built on earlier 2025 National Guard deployments in multiple cities and followed a Supreme Court ruling limiting alternative authorities for domestic military use. Congressional efforts to reform the 1807 statute remain stalled, while the administration continues expanded immigration enforcement that could generate further unrest. Upcoming factors include any escalation in protests, new executive directives on border security, or legislative action that might alter the conditions for invocation before key resolution deadlines.