Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood secured the GOP nomination unopposed in the March 17 Illinois primary for the 16th Congressional District, facing Democrat Paul Nolley, who also ran without opposition, solidifying the November 3 general election matchup. Trader consensus at 87.5% for Republicans reflects the district's strong Republican lean—rated Solid R by Cook Political Report—and LaHood's incumbency advantage, following his unchallenged 2024 victory amid minimal Democratic competition signaling low flip potential. No recent polls or scandals have emerged to shift dynamics, though national midterm trends or late fundraising surges could influence the race before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
88%
民主党
11%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$0 Vol.
88%
民主党
$0 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood secured the GOP nomination unopposed in the March 17 Illinois primary for the 16th Congressional District, facing Democrat Paul Nolley, who also ran without opposition, solidifying the November 3 general election matchup. Trader consensus at 87.5% for Republicans reflects the district's strong Republican lean—rated Solid R by Cook Political Report—and LaHood's incumbency advantage, following his unchallenged 2024 victory amid minimal Democratic competition signaling low flip potential. No recent polls or scandals have emerged to shift dynamics, though national midterm trends or late fundraising surges could influence the race before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood secured the GOP nomination unopposed in the March 17 Illinois primary for the 16th Congressional District, facing Democrat Paul Nolley, who also ran without opposition, solidifying the November 3 general election matchup. Trader consensus at 87.5% for Republicans reflects the district's strong Republican lean—rated Solid R by Cook Political Report—and LaHood's incumbency advantage, following his unchallenged 2024 victory amid minimal Democratic competition signaling low flip potential. No recent polls or scandals have emerged to shift dynamics, though national midterm trends or late fundraising surges could influence the race before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood secured the GOP nomination unopposed in the March 17 Illinois primary for the 16th Congressional District, facing Democrat Paul Nolley, who also ran without opposition, solidifying the November 3 general election matchup. Trader consensus at 87.5% for Republicans reflects the district's strong Republican lean—rated Solid R by Cook Political Report—and LaHood's incumbency advantage, following his unchallenged 2024 victory amid minimal Democratic competition signaling low flip potential. No recent polls or scandals have emerged to shift dynamics, though national midterm trends or late fundraising surges could influence the race before election day.
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