Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly two-thirds of the vote in Illinois' 5th congressional district, facing Republican nominee Tom Hanson in the November general election. The district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and a partisan voting index exceeding D+19, underpins the current 94.5% trader consensus for the Democratic outcome. Quigley's long tenure since 2009 and consistent strong performance in prior cycles, including 69% in 2024, reinforce this positioning. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national swing, a major local development, or significant shifts in voter turnout that have not materialized in recent cycles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$3,244 Vol.
95%
共和党
$1,491 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly two-thirds of the vote in Illinois' 5th congressional district, facing Republican nominee Tom Hanson in the November general election. The district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and a partisan voting index exceeding D+19, underpins the current 94.5% trader consensus for the Democratic outcome. Quigley's long tenure since 2009 and consistent strong performance in prior cycles, including 69% in 2024, reinforce this positioning. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national swing, a major local development, or significant shifts in voter turnout that have not materialized in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$4,734終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly two-thirds of the vote in Illinois' 5th congressional district, facing Republican nominee Tom Hanson in the November general election. The district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and a partisan voting index exceeding D+19, underpins the current 94.5% trader consensus for the Democratic outcome. Quigley's long tenure since 2009 and consistent strong performance in prior cycles, including 69% in 2024, reinforce this positioning. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national swing, a major local development, or significant shifts in voter turnout that have not materialized in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$4,734終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly two-thirds of the vote in Illinois' 5th congressional district, facing Republican nominee Tom Hanson in the November general election. The district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and a partisan voting index exceeding D+19, underpins the current 94.5% trader consensus for the Democratic outcome. Quigley's long tenure since 2009 and consistent strong performance in prior cycles, including 69% in 2024, reinforce this positioning. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national swing, a major local development, or significant shifts in voter turnout that have not materialized in recent cycles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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