Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in Illinois' 5th Congressional District's March 17 primary with 66% of the vote, defeating three challengers amid low turnout in this reliably blue North Side Chicago seat with a D+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index. Republican nominee Tommy Hanson, a perennial candidate who has repeatedly lost to Quigley, advanced unopposed in his primary, reinforcing trader consensus on a Democratic hold reflected in 93% implied probability. The district's entrenched Democratic voting blocs and Quigley's long tenure since 2009 underpin this dominance, though a major scandal, Quigley's health issues, or an overwhelming national Republican wave could narrow the path to victory ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$0 Vol.
94%
共和党
$1,465 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in Illinois' 5th Congressional District's March 17 primary with 66% of the vote, defeating three challengers amid low turnout in this reliably blue North Side Chicago seat with a D+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index. Republican nominee Tommy Hanson, a perennial candidate who has repeatedly lost to Quigley, advanced unopposed in his primary, reinforcing trader consensus on a Democratic hold reflected in 93% implied probability. The district's entrenched Democratic voting blocs and Quigley's long tenure since 2009 underpin this dominance, though a major scandal, Quigley's health issues, or an overwhelming national Republican wave could narrow the path to victory ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$1,465終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in Illinois' 5th Congressional District's March 17 primary with 66% of the vote, defeating three challengers amid low turnout in this reliably blue North Side Chicago seat with a D+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index. Republican nominee Tommy Hanson, a perennial candidate who has repeatedly lost to Quigley, advanced unopposed in his primary, reinforcing trader consensus on a Democratic hold reflected in 93% implied probability. The district's entrenched Democratic voting blocs and Quigley's long tenure since 2009 underpin this dominance, though a major scandal, Quigley's health issues, or an overwhelming national Republican wave could narrow the path to victory ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$1,465終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in Illinois' 5th Congressional District's March 17 primary with 66% of the vote, defeating three challengers amid low turnout in this reliably blue North Side Chicago seat with a D+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index. Republican nominee Tommy Hanson, a perennial candidate who has repeatedly lost to Quigley, advanced unopposed in his primary, reinforcing trader consensus on a Democratic hold reflected in 93% implied probability. The district's entrenched Democratic voting blocs and Quigley's long tenure since 2009 underpin this dominance, though a major scandal, Quigley's health issues, or an overwhelming national Republican wave could narrow the path to victory ahead of the November 3 general election.
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