The Illinois 2nd congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent electoral history, underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Following incumbent Robin Kelly's decision to run for Senate rather than seek re-election, the March 2026 Democratic primary produced Donna Miller as the nominee after she secured roughly 40 percent of the vote in a multi-candidate field. This outcome, combined with the district's southeast Chicago and southern suburban geography, positions the Democratic candidate for a substantial general-election advantage on November 3 against the Republican nominee. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or voter alignment within the resolution window, though late-cycle developments such as national political trends or candidate-specific factors could still influence final margins.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$30,932 Vol.
$30,932 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
4%
$30,932 Vol.
$30,932 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$12,427 Vol.
95%
共和党
$18,505 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 2nd congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent electoral history, underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Following incumbent Robin Kelly's decision to run for Senate rather than seek re-election, the March 2026 Democratic primary produced Donna Miller as the nominee after she secured roughly 40 percent of the vote in a multi-candidate field. This outcome, combined with the district's southeast Chicago and southern suburban geography, positions the Democratic candidate for a substantial general-election advantage on November 3 against the Republican nominee. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or voter alignment within the resolution window, though late-cycle developments such as national political trends or candidate-specific factors could still influence final margins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$30,932終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 2nd congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent electoral history, underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Following incumbent Robin Kelly's decision to run for Senate rather than seek re-election, the March 2026 Democratic primary produced Donna Miller as the nominee after she secured roughly 40 percent of the vote in a multi-candidate field. This outcome, combined with the district's southeast Chicago and southern suburban geography, positions the Democratic candidate for a substantial general-election advantage on November 3 against the Republican nominee. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or voter alignment within the resolution window, though late-cycle developments such as national political trends or candidate-specific factors could still influence final margins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$30,932終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 2nd congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent electoral history, underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Following incumbent Robin Kelly's decision to run for Senate rather than seek re-election, the March 2026 Democratic primary produced Donna Miller as the nominee after she secured roughly 40 percent of the vote in a multi-candidate field. This outcome, combined with the district's southeast Chicago and southern suburban geography, positions the Democratic candidate for a substantial general-election advantage on November 3 against the Republican nominee. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or voter alignment within the resolution window, though late-cycle developments such as national political trends or candidate-specific factors could still influence final margins.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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