Idaho's 2nd congressional district carries a strong structural Republican advantage, reflected in its R+13 Cook Partisan Voter Index and repeated wide margins in federal contests. Incumbent Mike Simpson, first elected in 1998, secured his party's nomination in the May 19, 2026 primary with roughly 63 percent of the vote and faces Democratic nominee Ellie Gilbreath in the November general election. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican, with limited polling or fundraising suggesting any competitive path for Democrats. This partisan baseline and Simpson's established record drive the current trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited to a significant national partisan shift or late-cycle developments affecting turnout in this reliably Republican-leaning district.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
93%
民主党
8%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$3,049 Vol.
93%
民主党
$3,409 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Idaho's 2nd congressional district carries a strong structural Republican advantage, reflected in its R+13 Cook Partisan Voter Index and repeated wide margins in federal contests. Incumbent Mike Simpson, first elected in 1998, secured his party's nomination in the May 19, 2026 primary with roughly 63 percent of the vote and faces Democratic nominee Ellie Gilbreath in the November general election. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican, with limited polling or fundraising suggesting any competitive path for Democrats. This partisan baseline and Simpson's established record drive the current trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited to a significant national partisan shift or late-cycle developments affecting turnout in this reliably Republican-leaning district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$6,458終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Idaho's 2nd congressional district carries a strong structural Republican advantage, reflected in its R+13 Cook Partisan Voter Index and repeated wide margins in federal contests. Incumbent Mike Simpson, first elected in 1998, secured his party's nomination in the May 19, 2026 primary with roughly 63 percent of the vote and faces Democratic nominee Ellie Gilbreath in the November general election. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican, with limited polling or fundraising suggesting any competitive path for Democrats. This partisan baseline and Simpson's established record drive the current trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited to a significant national partisan shift or late-cycle developments affecting turnout in this reliably Republican-leaning district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$6,458終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Idaho's 2nd congressional district carries a strong structural Republican advantage, reflected in its R+13 Cook Partisan Voter Index and repeated wide margins in federal contests. Incumbent Mike Simpson, first elected in 1998, secured his party's nomination in the May 19, 2026 primary with roughly 63 percent of the vote and faces Democratic nominee Ellie Gilbreath in the November general election. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican, with limited polling or fundraising suggesting any competitive path for Democrats. This partisan baseline and Simpson's established record drive the current trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited to a significant national partisan shift or late-cycle developments affecting turnout in this reliably Republican-leaning district.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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