Trader consensus prices Democratic victory at 71.5% in Iowa's 1st Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's history of ultra-competitive contests where incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) clung to victory by fewer than 800 votes over Christina Bohannan (D) in 2024, despite Donald Trump carrying the area by 8 points. March 17 ballot certification solidified a likely rematch, with Bohannan facing Travis Terrell in the Democratic primary and Miller-Meeks challenged by David Pautsch (R)—who polled within single digits of her in the prior primary—potentially weakening the GOP nominee. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Toss Up, but traders factor in Miller-Meeks' ongoing residency questions outside the district and early-cycle momentum for Democratic challengers ahead of June 2 primaries.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
72%
共和党
29%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
$0 Vol.
72%
共和党
$131 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices Democratic victory at 71.5% in Iowa's 1st Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's history of ultra-competitive contests where incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) clung to victory by fewer than 800 votes over Christina Bohannan (D) in 2024, despite Donald Trump carrying the area by 8 points. March 17 ballot certification solidified a likely rematch, with Bohannan facing Travis Terrell in the Democratic primary and Miller-Meeks challenged by David Pautsch (R)—who polled within single digits of her in the prior primary—potentially weakening the GOP nominee. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Toss Up, but traders factor in Miller-Meeks' ongoing residency questions outside the district and early-cycle momentum for Democratic challengers ahead of June 2 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ET
音量
$131終了日
Nov 4, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices Democratic victory at 71.5% in Iowa's 1st Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's history of ultra-competitive contests where incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) clung to victory by fewer than 800 votes over Christina Bohannan (D) in 2024, despite Donald Trump carrying the area by 8 points. March 17 ballot certification solidified a likely rematch, with Bohannan facing Travis Terrell in the Democratic primary and Miller-Meeks challenged by David Pautsch (R)—who polled within single digits of her in the prior primary—potentially weakening the GOP nominee. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Toss Up, but traders factor in Miller-Meeks' ongoing residency questions outside the district and early-cycle momentum for Democratic challengers ahead of June 2 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$131終了日
Nov 4, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices Democratic victory at 71.5% in Iowa's 1st Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's history of ultra-competitive contests where incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) clung to victory by fewer than 800 votes over Christina Bohannan (D) in 2024, despite Donald Trump carrying the area by 8 points. March 17 ballot certification solidified a likely rematch, with Bohannan facing Travis Terrell in the Democratic primary and Miller-Meeks challenged by David Pautsch (R)—who polled within single digits of her in the prior primary—potentially weakening the GOP nominee. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Toss Up, but traders factor in Miller-Meeks' ongoing residency questions outside the district and early-cycle momentum for Democratic challengers ahead of June 2 primaries.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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