Recent polling for the 2026 midterms shows Republican candidates drawing single-digit to low-teen support among Black registered voters, with Pew Research reporting 8% GOP preference against 68% Democratic in July surveys and other trackers ranging from 14-23%. This reflects erosion of 2024 gains, when Republican nominee support reached roughly 15-20%, amid falling presidential approval tied to economic pressures including inflation, higher Black unemployment, and tariff impacts. Policy developments such as DEI program rollbacks and the Supreme Court’s Louisiana v. Callais decision have added to concerns over representation. Trader consensus clustering around 8-11% share captures this volatility, with separation likely depending on economic data releases, turnout patterns in battleground districts, and any late shifts in generic ballot momentum before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日10～11％ 30%
8〜9% 29%
12〜13％ 23%
16〜17％ 10%
新規
新規
2026/11/06
8％未満
6%
8〜9%
29%
10～11％
30%
12〜13％
23%
14〜15％
8%
16〜17％
10%
18％以上
2%
10～11％ 30%
8〜9% 29%
12〜13％ 23%
16〜17％ 10%
新規
新規
2026/11/06
8％未満
$80 Vol.
6%
8〜9%
$802 Vol.
29%
10～11％
$622 Vol.
30%
12〜13％
$369 Vol.
23%
14〜15％
$220 Vol.
8%
16〜17％
$20 Vol.
10%
18％以上
$101 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling for the 2026 midterms shows Republican candidates drawing single-digit to low-teen support among Black registered voters, with Pew Research reporting 8% GOP preference against 68% Democratic in July surveys and other trackers ranging from 14-23%. This reflects erosion of 2024 gains, when Republican nominee support reached roughly 15-20%, amid falling presidential approval tied to economic pressures including inflation, higher Black unemployment, and tariff impacts. Policy developments such as DEI program rollbacks and the Supreme Court’s Louisiana v. Callais decision have added to concerns over representation. Trader consensus clustering around 8-11% share captures this volatility, with separation likely depending on economic data releases, turnout patterns in battleground districts, and any late shifts in generic ballot momentum before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
音量
$2,214終了日
2026/11/07マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling for the 2026 midterms shows Republican candidates drawing single-digit to low-teen support among Black registered voters, with Pew Research reporting 8% GOP preference against 68% Democratic in July surveys and other trackers ranging from 14-23%. This reflects erosion of 2024 gains, when Republican nominee support reached roughly 15-20%, amid falling presidential approval tied to economic pressures including inflation, higher Black unemployment, and tariff impacts. Policy developments such as DEI program rollbacks and the Supreme Court’s Louisiana v. Callais decision have added to concerns over representation. Trader consensus clustering around 8-11% share captures this volatility, with separation likely depending on economic data releases, turnout patterns in battleground districts, and any late shifts in generic ballot momentum before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
音量
$2,214終了日
2026/11/07マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the 2026 midterms shows Republican candidates drawing single-digit to low-teen support among Black registered voters, with Pew Research reporting 8% GOP preference against 68% Democratic in July surveys and other trackers ranging from 14-23%. This reflects erosion of 2024 gains, when Republican nominee support reached roughly 15-20%, amid falling presidential approval tied to economic pressures including inflation, higher Black unemployment, and tariff impacts. Policy developments such as DEI program rollbacks and the Supreme Court’s Louisiana v. Callais decision have added to concerns over representation. Trader consensus clustering around 8-11% share captures this volatility, with separation likely depending on economic data releases, turnout patterns in battleground districts, and any late shifts in generic ballot momentum before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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