Republican registration advantages of roughly 1.5 million voters and recent polling showing Ashley Moody leading Angie Nixon by about 10 points have anchored expectations for solid but not exceptional turnout in Florida’s November 3 Senate contest. Tight probabilities across the 7.5M–9M range reflect uncertainty over independent and no-party-affiliation participation, early and mail ballot patterns, and relative base enthusiasm in a midterm environment. Get-out-the-vote intensity in the final weeks, regional mobilization differences, and any last-minute shifts among undecided voters could separate the leading turnout buckets.