Traders assign a 74.5% implied probability that EU debt avoids downgrade before 2027, reflecting the bloc’s strong supranational credit profile anchored by AAA ratings from Fitch, Moody’s, Scope, DBRS, and KBRA alongside S&P’s AA+ with stable outlooks as of September 2026. Recent affirmations cite high member-state support, budgetary safeguards under the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU, and diversified funding despite outstanding borrowing climbing above €738 billion in 2025 and projected toward €1 trillion by end-2027 from NextGenerationEU programs. Elevated interest costs and 2027 budget pressures are offset by fiscal governance reforms and expectations that core sovereigns sustain backing, keeping near-term downgrade risk contained absent major cohesion shocks.