Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 84.5% implied probability for an EU sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, driven primarily by France's deepening fiscal crisis following the December 4 censure vote that toppled Prime Minister Michel Barnier's minority government amid rejected 2025 budget plans. Persistent political gridlock in Paris has heightened concerns over France's 112% debt-to-GDP ratio and widening deficits, with Scope Ratings placing it on negative watch in November. Italy's elevated 140%+ debt burden and Spain's fiscal strains further bolster trader pessimism, contrasting with Germany's stability. Key catalysts include French government formation by mid-December, potential ECB policy shifts, and rating agency reviews in Q1 2025, though EU fiscal rule enforcement could accelerate downside risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日2027年までにEU債務格下げ？
2027年までにEU債務格下げ？
はい
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
はい
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 84.5% implied probability for an EU sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, driven primarily by France's deepening fiscal crisis following the December 4 censure vote that toppled Prime Minister Michel Barnier's minority government amid rejected 2025 budget plans. Persistent political gridlock in Paris has heightened concerns over France's 112% debt-to-GDP ratio and widening deficits, with Scope Ratings placing it on negative watch in November. Italy's elevated 140%+ debt burden and Spain's fiscal strains further bolster trader pessimism, contrasting with Germany's stability. Key catalysts include French government formation by mid-December, potential ECB policy shifts, and rating agency reviews in Q1 2025, though EU fiscal rule enforcement could accelerate downside risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 7, 2026, 6:01 PM ET
音量
$571終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 7, 2026, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 84.5% implied probability for an EU sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, driven primarily by France's deepening fiscal crisis following the December 4 censure vote that toppled Prime Minister Michel Barnier's minority government amid rejected 2025 budget plans. Persistent political gridlock in Paris has heightened concerns over France's 112% debt-to-GDP ratio and widening deficits, with Scope Ratings placing it on negative watch in November. Italy's elevated 140%+ debt burden and Spain's fiscal strains further bolster trader pessimism, contrasting with Germany's stability. Key catalysts include French government formation by mid-December, potential ECB policy shifts, and rating agency reviews in Q1 2025, though EU fiscal rule enforcement could accelerate downside risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$571終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 7, 2026, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 84.5% implied probability for an EU sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, driven primarily by France's deepening fiscal crisis following the December 4 censure vote that toppled Prime Minister Michel Barnier's minority government amid rejected 2025 budget plans. Persistent political gridlock in Paris has heightened concerns over France's 112% debt-to-GDP ratio and widening deficits, with Scope Ratings placing it on negative watch in November. Italy's elevated 140%+ debt burden and Spain's fiscal strains further bolster trader pessimism, contrasting with Germany's stability. Key catalysts include French government formation by mid-December, potential ECB policy shifts, and rating agency reviews in Q1 2025, though EU fiscal rule enforcement could accelerate downside risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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