Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 73% implied probability of an EU sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, anchored by persistent fiscal deterioration in France and Italy. France's 2024 budget deficit hit 5.5% of GDP amid post-election political gridlock, prompting S&P's May AA- downgrade and Moody's negative Aa2 outlook, with 2025 budget risks looming under stricter EU fiscal rules. Italy's debt-to-GDP ratio remains above 140%, vulnerable to higher ECB borrowing costs despite recent rate cuts lowering 10-year Bund yields to 2.24%. Surging defense spending tied to Ukraine aid and green investments amplify pressures, though ECB policy provides a buffer; watch France's December budget deadline and EU excessive deficit proceedings for sentiment shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日2027年までにEU債務格下げ？
2027年までにEU債務格下げ？
はい
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
はい
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 73% implied probability of an EU sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, anchored by persistent fiscal deterioration in France and Italy. France's 2024 budget deficit hit 5.5% of GDP amid post-election political gridlock, prompting S&P's May AA- downgrade and Moody's negative Aa2 outlook, with 2025 budget risks looming under stricter EU fiscal rules. Italy's debt-to-GDP ratio remains above 140%, vulnerable to higher ECB borrowing costs despite recent rate cuts lowering 10-year Bund yields to 2.24%. Surging defense spending tied to Ukraine aid and green investments amplify pressures, though ECB policy provides a buffer; watch France's December budget deadline and EU excessive deficit proceedings for sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 7, 2026, 6:01 PM ET
音量
$571終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 7, 2026, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 73% implied probability of an EU sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, anchored by persistent fiscal deterioration in France and Italy. France's 2024 budget deficit hit 5.5% of GDP amid post-election political gridlock, prompting S&P's May AA- downgrade and Moody's negative Aa2 outlook, with 2025 budget risks looming under stricter EU fiscal rules. Italy's debt-to-GDP ratio remains above 140%, vulnerable to higher ECB borrowing costs despite recent rate cuts lowering 10-year Bund yields to 2.24%. Surging defense spending tied to Ukraine aid and green investments amplify pressures, though ECB policy provides a buffer; watch France's December budget deadline and EU excessive deficit proceedings for sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$571終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 7, 2026, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 73% implied probability of an EU sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, anchored by persistent fiscal deterioration in France and Italy. France's 2024 budget deficit hit 5.5% of GDP amid post-election political gridlock, prompting S&P's May AA- downgrade and Moody's negative Aa2 outlook, with 2025 budget risks looming under stricter EU fiscal rules. Italy's debt-to-GDP ratio remains above 140%, vulnerable to higher ECB borrowing costs despite recent rate cuts lowering 10-year Bund yields to 2.24%. Surging defense spending tied to Ukraine aid and green investments amplify pressures, though ECB policy provides a buffer; watch France's December budget deadline and EU excessive deficit proceedings for sentiment shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問