Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy price spikes, pushing euro-area inflation forecasts for 2026 to around 2.6% and prompting markets to price in at least one 25-basis-point ECB rate hike by mid-year. With the deposit facility rate holding steady at 2.00% following the April 2026 decision, the Governing Council has emphasized a strictly data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach without pre-committing to any path. This backdrop supports the 63.5% implied probability of no change at the July 2026 meeting—consistent with a June hike already having occurred—while the 33.5% odds of a 25-basis-point increase reflect uncertainty over second-round effects and incoming inflation data. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 10 policy decision and subsequent releases on energy prices and core inflation measures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日No change 64%
25 bps Increase 32%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
新規
新規
2026/07/23
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
64%
25 bps Increase
32%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 64%
25 bps Increase 32%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
新規
新規
2026/07/23
50+ bps decrease
$307 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$248 Vol.
1%
No change
$300 Vol.
64%
25 bps Increase
$257 Vol.
32%
50+ bps increase
$334 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy price spikes, pushing euro-area inflation forecasts for 2026 to around 2.6% and prompting markets to price in at least one 25-basis-point ECB rate hike by mid-year. With the deposit facility rate holding steady at 2.00% following the April 2026 decision, the Governing Council has emphasized a strictly data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach without pre-committing to any path. This backdrop supports the 63.5% implied probability of no change at the July 2026 meeting—consistent with a June hike already having occurred—while the 33.5% odds of a 25-basis-point increase reflect uncertainty over second-round effects and incoming inflation data. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 10 policy decision and subsequent releases on energy prices and core inflation measures.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
音量
$1,446終了日
2026/07/23マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy price spikes, pushing euro-area inflation forecasts for 2026 to around 2.6% and prompting markets to price in at least one 25-basis-point ECB rate hike by mid-year. With the deposit facility rate holding steady at 2.00% following the April 2026 decision, the Governing Council has emphasized a strictly data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach without pre-committing to any path. This backdrop supports the 63.5% implied probability of no change at the July 2026 meeting—consistent with a June hike already having occurred—while the 33.5% odds of a 25-basis-point increase reflect uncertainty over second-round effects and incoming inflation data. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 10 policy decision and subsequent releases on energy prices and core inflation measures.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
音量
$1,446終了日
2026/07/23マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy price spikes, pushing euro-area inflation forecasts for 2026 to around 2.6% and prompting markets to price in at least one 25-basis-point ECB rate hike by mid-year. With the deposit facility rate holding steady at 2.00% following the April 2026 decision, the Governing Council has emphasized a strictly data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach without pre-committing to any path. This backdrop supports the 63.5% implied probability of no change at the July 2026 meeting—consistent with a June hike already having occurred—while the 33.5% odds of a 25-basis-point increase reflect uncertainty over second-round effects and incoming inflation data. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 10 policy decision and subsequent releases on energy prices and core inflation measures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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