**Persistent energy-driven inflation pressures and resilient euro area growth have positioned a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike in December 2026 as the leading outcome among traders.** Recent Middle East developments have pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel, lifting headline inflation to around 3.3% in August and prompting upward revisions to ECB staff projections for 2027 and 2028. The September 25 basis point increase to 2.50% was unanimous, with President Lagarde calling it a “no-brainer,” and most analysts now anticipate a pause at the October 29 meeting followed by a further tightening at the December 17 gathering when fresh forecasts are released. Limited evidence of second-round effects into wages or core inflation so far has capped expectations for larger moves, while stable longer-term expectations and data dependence reinforce the 74.5% implied probability for the modest December increase.