Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72.5% implied probability against the Cuban regime falling in 2026, driven by President Miguel Díaz-Canel's recent defiant statements in U.S. media interviews on April 9-12, where he rejected resignation demands, vowed resistance to tightened U.S. oil sanctions and blockades under the Trump administration, and called for unconditional dialogue. Despite ongoing protests over chronic blackouts, food shortages, and economic collapse—sparked by Venezuela's turmoil and escalating since March—state media reports contained unrest through arrests and the release of over 2,000 political prisoners as concessions. The regime's historical resilience via repression, elite cohesion, and limited opposition organization tempers expectations of overthrow before year-end, though further U.S. pressure or mass uprisings could shift dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$141,258 Vol.
$141,258 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$141,258 Vol.
$141,258 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72.5% implied probability against the Cuban regime falling in 2026, driven by President Miguel Díaz-Canel's recent defiant statements in U.S. media interviews on April 9-12, where he rejected resignation demands, vowed resistance to tightened U.S. oil sanctions and blockades under the Trump administration, and called for unconditional dialogue. Despite ongoing protests over chronic blackouts, food shortages, and economic collapse—sparked by Venezuela's turmoil and escalating since March—state media reports contained unrest through arrests and the release of over 2,000 political prisoners as concessions. The regime's historical resilience via repression, elite cohesion, and limited opposition organization tempers expectations of overthrow before year-end, though further U.S. pressure or mass uprisings could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
音量
$141,258終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72.5% implied probability against the Cuban regime falling in 2026, driven by President Miguel Díaz-Canel's recent defiant statements in U.S. media interviews on April 9-12, where he rejected resignation demands, vowed resistance to tightened U.S. oil sanctions and blockades under the Trump administration, and called for unconditional dialogue. Despite ongoing protests over chronic blackouts, food shortages, and economic collapse—sparked by Venezuela's turmoil and escalating since March—state media reports contained unrest through arrests and the release of over 2,000 political prisoners as concessions. The regime's historical resilience via repression, elite cohesion, and limited opposition organization tempers expectations of overthrow before year-end, though further U.S. pressure or mass uprisings could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$141,258終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72.5% implied probability against the Cuban regime falling in 2026, driven by President Miguel Díaz-Canel's recent defiant statements in U.S. media interviews on April 9-12, where he rejected resignation demands, vowed resistance to tightened U.S. oil sanctions and blockades under the Trump administration, and called for unconditional dialogue. Despite ongoing protests over chronic blackouts, food shortages, and economic collapse—sparked by Venezuela's turmoil and escalating since March—state media reports contained unrest through arrests and the release of over 2,000 political prisoners as concessions. The regime's historical resilience via repression, elite cohesion, and limited opposition organization tempers expectations of overthrow before year-end, though further U.S. pressure or mass uprisings could shift dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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