Amid Cuba's deepening energy crisis—triggered by a U.S. oil blockade halting imports since January and Venezuela's supply cutoff—widespread blackouts and food shortages sparked protests, including a March 14 attack on a Communist Party office in Morón. President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed early U.S. talks on March 13, amid demands for his removal, while pushing urgent economic reforms like business autonomy. Despite speculation on leadership change and ongoing unrest since 2024, the regime retains control with no mass uprising or institutional collapse, reflected in trader consensus pricing "No" at 64.5% for regime fall by year-end. Upcoming diplomatic developments or further blackouts could shift odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$126,059 Vol.
$126,059 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$126,059 Vol.
$126,059 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Amid Cuba's deepening energy crisis—triggered by a U.S. oil blockade halting imports since January and Venezuela's supply cutoff—widespread blackouts and food shortages sparked protests, including a March 14 attack on a Communist Party office in Morón. President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed early U.S. talks on March 13, amid demands for his removal, while pushing urgent economic reforms like business autonomy. Despite speculation on leadership change and ongoing unrest since 2024, the regime retains control with no mass uprising or institutional collapse, reflected in trader consensus pricing "No" at 64.5% for regime fall by year-end. Upcoming diplomatic developments or further blackouts could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
音量
$126,059終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Amid Cuba's deepening energy crisis—triggered by a U.S. oil blockade halting imports since January and Venezuela's supply cutoff—widespread blackouts and food shortages sparked protests, including a March 14 attack on a Communist Party office in Morón. President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed early U.S. talks on March 13, amid demands for his removal, while pushing urgent economic reforms like business autonomy. Despite speculation on leadership change and ongoing unrest since 2024, the regime retains control with no mass uprising or institutional collapse, reflected in trader consensus pricing "No" at 64.5% for regime fall by year-end. Upcoming diplomatic developments or further blackouts could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$126,059終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid Cuba's deepening energy crisis—triggered by a U.S. oil blockade halting imports since January and Venezuela's supply cutoff—widespread blackouts and food shortages sparked protests, including a March 14 attack on a Communist Party office in Morón. President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed early U.S. talks on March 13, amid demands for his removal, while pushing urgent economic reforms like business autonomy. Despite speculation on leadership change and ongoing unrest since 2024, the regime retains control with no mass uprising or institutional collapse, reflected in trader consensus pricing "No" at 64.5% for regime fall by year-end. Upcoming diplomatic developments or further blackouts could shift odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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