Incumbent Democratic Representative Sydney Kamlager-Dove holds a commanding position in California's 37th congressional district, a seat with a pronounced Democratic partisan lean exceeding 30 points on standard indexes. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93.5% implied probability of prevailing in the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district's consistent voting patterns, the incumbent's prior 78% general election margin, and a fragmented Republican field that includes limited name recognition. The June 2 top-two primary, featuring multiple Democratic challengers alongside a single Republican, reinforces expectations that the general election matchup will pit a Democrat against a Republican in a low-competition environment. A realistic shift in odds would require an unanticipated primary upset, significant late-cycle national political realignment, or a major scandal affecting the frontrunner, none of which have materialized in recent filings or polling trends.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$381 Vol.
94%
共和党
$312 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Sydney Kamlager-Dove holds a commanding position in California's 37th congressional district, a seat with a pronounced Democratic partisan lean exceeding 30 points on standard indexes. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93.5% implied probability of prevailing in the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district's consistent voting patterns, the incumbent's prior 78% general election margin, and a fragmented Republican field that includes limited name recognition. The June 2 top-two primary, featuring multiple Democratic challengers alongside a single Republican, reinforces expectations that the general election matchup will pit a Democrat against a Republican in a low-competition environment. A realistic shift in odds would require an unanticipated primary upset, significant late-cycle national political realignment, or a major scandal affecting the frontrunner, none of which have materialized in recent filings or polling trends.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
音量
$693終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Sydney Kamlager-Dove holds a commanding position in California's 37th congressional district, a seat with a pronounced Democratic partisan lean exceeding 30 points on standard indexes. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93.5% implied probability of prevailing in the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district's consistent voting patterns, the incumbent's prior 78% general election margin, and a fragmented Republican field that includes limited name recognition. The June 2 top-two primary, featuring multiple Democratic challengers alongside a single Republican, reinforces expectations that the general election matchup will pit a Democrat against a Republican in a low-competition environment. A realistic shift in odds would require an unanticipated primary upset, significant late-cycle national political realignment, or a major scandal affecting the frontrunner, none of which have materialized in recent filings or polling trends.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$693終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Sydney Kamlager-Dove holds a commanding position in California's 37th congressional district, a seat with a pronounced Democratic partisan lean exceeding 30 points on standard indexes. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93.5% implied probability of prevailing in the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district's consistent voting patterns, the incumbent's prior 78% general election margin, and a fragmented Republican field that includes limited name recognition. The June 2 top-two primary, featuring multiple Democratic challengers alongside a single Republican, reinforces expectations that the general election matchup will pit a Democrat against a Republican in a low-competition environment. A realistic shift in odds would require an unanticipated primary upset, significant late-cycle national political realignment, or a major scandal affecting the frontrunner, none of which have materialized in recent filings or polling trends.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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