Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in "No" at 100% for Avatar 4 receiving an official greenlight by the March 31, 2026, deadline, driven by the absence of any explicit announcement from Disney or James Cameron confirming production start or approval. Despite Disney slotting the sequel for December 21, 2029, on its theatrical calendar and Cameron's March 9 interview describing it as "very likely" amid casting teases for Michelle Yeoh, traders demand unambiguous language like past franchise commitments. Avatar: Fire and Ash's $1.5 billion global box office—solid but trailing The Way of Water's $2.3 billion—heightened scrutiny on franchise costs, delaying formal go-aheads. Realistic upsets now hinge on rare post-deadline clarifications reinterpreting prior statements, though resolution criteria favor closure without new developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3月31日までにアバター4がグリーンライトされますか？
3月31日までにアバター4がグリーンライトされますか？
はい
$22,444 Vol.
$22,444 Vol.
2026/03/31
はい
$22,444 Vol.
$22,444 Vol.
2026/03/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fourth installment in James Cameron's Avatar series is explicitly announced to be in production or preparing to enter production by March 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the film must be explicitly acknowledged by James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, its distributor/studio (e.g., 20th Century Studios), or that distributor/studio's parent company (e.g., Disney) to be a sequel to "Avatar: Fire and Ash", and have a similar sequential relationship to the one between "Avatar: The Way of Water" and "Avatar: Fire and Ash". An announcement of a new qualifying film before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced film becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, a qualifying film's distributor (e.g., 20th Century Studios) or parent company (e.g., Disney), or a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in "No" at 100% for Avatar 4 receiving an official greenlight by the March 31, 2026, deadline, driven by the absence of any explicit announcement from Disney or James Cameron confirming production start or approval. Despite Disney slotting the sequel for December 21, 2029, on its theatrical calendar and Cameron's March 9 interview describing it as "very likely" amid casting teases for Michelle Yeoh, traders demand unambiguous language like past franchise commitments. Avatar: Fire and Ash's $1.5 billion global box office—solid but trailing The Way of Water's $2.3 billion—heightened scrutiny on franchise costs, delaying formal go-aheads. Realistic upsets now hinge on rare post-deadline clarifications reinterpreting prior statements, though resolution criteria favor closure without new developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fourth installment in James Cameron's Avatar series is explicitly announced to be in production or preparing to enter production by March 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the film must be explicitly acknowledged by James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, its distributor/studio (e.g., 20th Century Studios), or that distributor/studio's parent company (e.g., Disney) to be a sequel to "Avatar: Fire and Ash", and have a similar sequential relationship to the one between "Avatar: The Way of Water" and "Avatar: Fire and Ash". An announcement of a new qualifying film before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced film becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, a qualifying film's distributor (e.g., 20th Century Studios) or parent company (e.g., Disney), or a consensus of credible sources.
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the film must be explicitly acknowledged by James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, its distributor/studio (e.g., 20th Century Studios), or that distributor/studio's parent company (e.g., Disney) to be a sequel to "Avatar: Fire and Ash", and have a similar sequential relationship to the one between "Avatar: The Way of Water" and "Avatar: Fire and Ash". An announcement of a new qualifying film before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced film becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, a qualifying film's distributor (e.g., 20th Century Studios) or parent company (e.g., Disney), or a consensus of credible sources.
マーケット開始日： Dec 17, 2025, 3:46 PM ET
音量
$22,444終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Dec 17, 2025, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てウィンドウ
最終
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fourth installment in James Cameron's Avatar series is explicitly announced to be in production or preparing to enter production by March 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the film must be explicitly acknowledged by James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, its distributor/studio (e.g., 20th Century Studios), or that distributor/studio's parent company (e.g., Disney) to be a sequel to "Avatar: Fire and Ash", and have a similar sequential relationship to the one between "Avatar: The Way of Water" and "Avatar: Fire and Ash". An announcement of a new qualifying film before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced film becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, a qualifying film's distributor (e.g., 20th Century Studios) or parent company (e.g., Disney), or a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in "No" at 100% for Avatar 4 receiving an official greenlight by the March 31, 2026, deadline, driven by the absence of any explicit announcement from Disney or James Cameron confirming production start or approval. Despite Disney slotting the sequel for December 21, 2029, on its theatrical calendar and Cameron's March 9 interview describing it as "very likely" amid casting teases for Michelle Yeoh, traders demand unambiguous language like past franchise commitments. Avatar: Fire and Ash's $1.5 billion global box office—solid but trailing The Way of Water's $2.3 billion—heightened scrutiny on franchise costs, delaying formal go-aheads. Realistic upsets now hinge on rare post-deadline clarifications reinterpreting prior statements, though resolution criteria favor closure without new developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fourth installment in James Cameron's Avatar series is explicitly announced to be in production or preparing to enter production by March 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the film must be explicitly acknowledged by James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, its distributor/studio (e.g., 20th Century Studios), or that distributor/studio's parent company (e.g., Disney) to be a sequel to "Avatar: Fire and Ash", and have a similar sequential relationship to the one between "Avatar: The Way of Water" and "Avatar: Fire and Ash". An announcement of a new qualifying film before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced film becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, a qualifying film's distributor (e.g., 20th Century Studios) or parent company (e.g., Disney), or a consensus of credible sources.
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the film must be explicitly acknowledged by James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, its distributor/studio (e.g., 20th Century Studios), or that distributor/studio's parent company (e.g., Disney) to be a sequel to "Avatar: Fire and Ash", and have a similar sequential relationship to the one between "Avatar: The Way of Water" and "Avatar: Fire and Ash". An announcement of a new qualifying film before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced film becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, a qualifying film's distributor (e.g., 20th Century Studios) or parent company (e.g., Disney), or a consensus of credible sources.
音量
$22,485終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Dec 17, 2025, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てウィンドウ
最終
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in "No" at 100% for Avatar 4 receiving an official greenlight by the March 31, 2026, deadline, driven by the absence of any explicit announcement from Disney or James Cameron confirming production start or approval. Despite Disney slotting the sequel for December 21, 2029, on its theatrical calendar and Cameron's March 9 interview describing it as "very likely" amid casting teases for Michelle Yeoh, traders demand unambiguous language like past franchise commitments. Avatar: Fire and Ash's $1.5 billion global box office—solid but trailing The Way of Water's $2.3 billion—heightened scrutiny on franchise costs, delaying formal go-aheads. Realistic upsets now hinge on rare post-deadline clarifications reinterpreting prior statements, though resolution criteria favor closure without new developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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