Trump's budget proposal included $152 million for initial Alcatraz prison renovation costs, yet the island remains under National Park Service control as a major tourist destination with ongoing ferry dock repairs scheduled through mid-November 2026. No congressional appropriation has advanced the project, feasibility assessments by the Bureau of Prisons remain incomplete, and interagency transfers or legislative changes needed to convert the site have not occurred. These institutional, funding, and timeline barriers sustain the 97.5% trader consensus on No. Late-year developments that could still shift odds include an unexpected supplemental funding bill, accelerated executive directives overriding standard processes, or a formal feasibility report clearing major logistical hurdles before December 31.