Polymarket traders assign a 26.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing in the $7,000-$7,500 range by end-2026, narrowly leading <$6,000 at 22% in a closely contested field, driven by Q1 real GDP growth accelerating to 2.0% annualized and March unemployment holding steady at 4.3% with 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions. The Fed's April 29 FOMC decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%—amid an 8-4 dissent split highlighting policy divide—has amplified uncertainty, tempering optimism despite the index's current level near 7,400 (up 7.6% YTD) and analyst targets like Goldman Sachs' 7,600. Differentiating factors include earnings growth projections of 17-22%, inflation trajectory, and June FOMC outcomes, with tail risks from geopolitical tensions pricing downside protection.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCosa chiuderà l'S&P 500 (SPX) alla fine del 2026?
Cosa chiuderà l'S&P 500 (SPX) alla fine del 2026?
$7.000-$7.500 29%
< $6.000 22%
$6.500-$7.000 16%
$7.500-$8.000 16%
$24,782 Vol.
$24,782 Vol.
31 dic 2026
< $6.000
22%
$6.000-$6.500
19%
$6.500-$7.000
16%
$7.000-$7.500
28%
$7.500-$8.000
16%
>$8.000
12%
$7.000-$7.500 29%
< $6.000 22%
$6.500-$7.000 16%
$7.500-$8.000 16%
$24,782 Vol.
$24,782 Vol.
31 dic 2026
< $6.000
$15,484 Vol.
22%
$6.000-$6.500
$1,429 Vol.
19%
$6.500-$7.000
$2,389 Vol.
16%
$7.000-$7.500
$1,114 Vol.
28%
$7.500-$8.000
$2,074 Vol.
16%
>$8.000
$2,293 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders assign a 26.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing in the $7,000-$7,500 range by end-2026, narrowly leading <$6,000 at 22% in a closely contested field, driven by Q1 real GDP growth accelerating to 2.0% annualized and March unemployment holding steady at 4.3% with 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions. The Fed's April 29 FOMC decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%—amid an 8-4 dissent split highlighting policy divide—has amplified uncertainty, tempering optimism despite the index's current level near 7,400 (up 7.6% YTD) and analyst targets like Goldman Sachs' 7,600. Differentiating factors include earnings growth projections of 17-22%, inflation trajectory, and June FOMC outcomes, with tail risks from geopolitical tensions pricing downside protection.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Mercato aperto: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volume
$24,782Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders assign a 26.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing in the $7,000-$7,500 range by end-2026, narrowly leading <$6,000 at 22% in a closely contested field, driven by Q1 real GDP growth accelerating to 2.0% annualized and March unemployment holding steady at 4.3% with 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions. The Fed's April 29 FOMC decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%—amid an 8-4 dissent split highlighting policy divide—has amplified uncertainty, tempering optimism despite the index's current level near 7,400 (up 7.6% YTD) and analyst targets like Goldman Sachs' 7,600. Differentiating factors include earnings growth projections of 17-22%, inflation trajectory, and June FOMC outcomes, with tail risks from geopolitical tensions pricing downside protection.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$24,782Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 26.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing in the $7,000-$7,500 range by end-2026, narrowly leading <$6,000 at 22% in a closely contested field, driven by Q1 real GDP growth accelerating to 2.0% annualized and March unemployment holding steady at 4.3% with 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions. The Fed's April 29 FOMC decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%—amid an 8-4 dissent split highlighting policy divide—has amplified uncertainty, tempering optimism despite the index's current level near 7,400 (up 7.6% YTD) and analyst targets like Goldman Sachs' 7,600. Differentiating factors include earnings growth projections of 17-22%, inflation trajectory, and June FOMC outcomes, with tail risks from geopolitical tensions pricing downside protection.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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