Polymarket traders assign a leading 31.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below 6,000 by December 31, 2026, narrowly ahead of the 22.5% for 7,000–7,500, reflecting closely contested sentiment as the index hits a record 7,126 close on April 17 amid U.S.-Iran truce hopes that erased early-year war-driven losses. This split stems from solid Q1 earnings growth projections of 12–17% year-over-year, yet offset by March 2026 CPI inflation surging to 3.3%—curbing Federal Reserve rate-cut bets with funds steady at 3.6%—stretched valuations near 30x forward earnings, and Wall Street year-end targets clustering at 7,200–7,800. Key differentiators include the April FOMC meeting and Q2 GDP release, which could sway macro trajectory and break the deadlock.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCosa chiuderà l'S&P 500 (SPX) alla fine del 2026?
Cosa chiuderà l'S&P 500 (SPX) alla fine del 2026?
< $6.000 32%
$7.000-$7.500 23%
$6.000-$6.500 14%
$6.500-$7.000 14%
$19,269 Vol.
$19,269 Vol.
31 dic 2026
< $6.000
32%
$6.000-$6.500
14%
$6.500-$7.000
14%
$7.000-$7.500
23%
$7.500-$8.000
12%
>$8.000
13%
< $6.000 32%
$7.000-$7.500 23%
$6.000-$6.500 14%
$6.500-$7.000 14%
$19,269 Vol.
$19,269 Vol.
31 dic 2026
< $6.000
$11,578 Vol.
32%
$6.000-$6.500
$1,351 Vol.
14%
$6.500-$7.000
$1,969 Vol.
14%
$7.000-$7.500
$923 Vol.
23%
$7.500-$8.000
$1,654 Vol.
12%
>$8.000
$1,794 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders assign a leading 31.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below 6,000 by December 31, 2026, narrowly ahead of the 22.5% for 7,000–7,500, reflecting closely contested sentiment as the index hits a record 7,126 close on April 17 amid U.S.-Iran truce hopes that erased early-year war-driven losses. This split stems from solid Q1 earnings growth projections of 12–17% year-over-year, yet offset by March 2026 CPI inflation surging to 3.3%—curbing Federal Reserve rate-cut bets with funds steady at 3.6%—stretched valuations near 30x forward earnings, and Wall Street year-end targets clustering at 7,200–7,800. Key differentiators include the April FOMC meeting and Q2 GDP release, which could sway macro trajectory and break the deadlock.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Mercato aperto: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volume
$19,269Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders assign a leading 31.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below 6,000 by December 31, 2026, narrowly ahead of the 22.5% for 7,000–7,500, reflecting closely contested sentiment as the index hits a record 7,126 close on April 17 amid U.S.-Iran truce hopes that erased early-year war-driven losses. This split stems from solid Q1 earnings growth projections of 12–17% year-over-year, yet offset by March 2026 CPI inflation surging to 3.3%—curbing Federal Reserve rate-cut bets with funds steady at 3.6%—stretched valuations near 30x forward earnings, and Wall Street year-end targets clustering at 7,200–7,800. Key differentiators include the April FOMC meeting and Q2 GDP release, which could sway macro trajectory and break the deadlock.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$19,269Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a leading 31.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below 6,000 by December 31, 2026, narrowly ahead of the 22.5% for 7,000–7,500, reflecting closely contested sentiment as the index hits a record 7,126 close on April 17 amid U.S.-Iran truce hopes that erased early-year war-driven losses. This split stems from solid Q1 earnings growth projections of 12–17% year-over-year, yet offset by March 2026 CPI inflation surging to 3.3%—curbing Federal Reserve rate-cut bets with funds steady at 3.6%—stretched valuations near 30x forward earnings, and Wall Street year-end targets clustering at 7,200–7,800. Key differentiators include the April FOMC meeting and Q2 GDP release, which could sway macro trajectory and break the deadlock.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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