Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's minority government, reliant on coalition support from Sumar and regional parties like PNV and Junts, has maintained stability into May 2026 despite PSOE's heavy defeats in February's snap regional election in Aragón and subsequent polls in Castilla y León and Andalusia. Traders' 73.5% implied probability on "No" reflects Sánchez's firm public rejections of a snap election for the Cortes Generales—most recently on April 29—coupled with his confirmed intent to seek re-election in 2027, the scheduled end of the term no later than August. Absent a successful no-confidence motion or irreparable budget impasse, the wisdom of crowds prices low risk of dissolution in the year's remainder, though opposition pressure from PP leader Feijóo persists.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$17,832 Vol.
$17,832 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$17,832 Vol.
$17,832 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's minority government, reliant on coalition support from Sumar and regional parties like PNV and Junts, has maintained stability into May 2026 despite PSOE's heavy defeats in February's snap regional election in Aragón and subsequent polls in Castilla y León and Andalusia. Traders' 73.5% implied probability on "No" reflects Sánchez's firm public rejections of a snap election for the Cortes Generales—most recently on April 29—coupled with his confirmed intent to seek re-election in 2027, the scheduled end of the term no later than August. Absent a successful no-confidence motion or irreparable budget impasse, the wisdom of crowds prices low risk of dissolution in the year's remainder, though opposition pressure from PP leader Feijóo persists.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 5, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
Volume
$17,832Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 5, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's minority government, reliant on coalition support from Sumar and regional parties like PNV and Junts, has maintained stability into May 2026 despite PSOE's heavy defeats in February's snap regional election in Aragón and subsequent polls in Castilla y León and Andalusia. Traders' 73.5% implied probability on "No" reflects Sánchez's firm public rejections of a snap election for the Cortes Generales—most recently on April 29—coupled with his confirmed intent to seek re-election in 2027, the scheduled end of the term no later than August. Absent a successful no-confidence motion or irreparable budget impasse, the wisdom of crowds prices low risk of dissolution in the year's remainder, though opposition pressure from PP leader Feijóo persists.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$17,832Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 5, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's minority government, reliant on coalition support from Sumar and regional parties like PNV and Junts, has maintained stability into May 2026 despite PSOE's heavy defeats in February's snap regional election in Aragón and subsequent polls in Castilla y León and Andalusia. Traders' 73.5% implied probability on "No" reflects Sánchez's firm public rejections of a snap election for the Cortes Generales—most recently on April 29—coupled with his confirmed intent to seek re-election in 2027, the scheduled end of the term no later than August. Absent a successful no-confidence motion or irreparable budget impasse, the wisdom of crowds prices low risk of dissolution in the year's remainder, though opposition pressure from PP leader Feijóo persists.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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