Recent polling averages project the center-right People's Party and far-right Vox combining for 196–205 seats in the 350-seat Congress ahead of the November 29 vote, comfortably above the 176-seat threshold for an absolute majority. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called the snap election after parliamentary defeats on housing measures eroded his minority coalition's support. A late-October train disaster near Urda further weakened PSOE standing in subsequent surveys while PP positioned itself on governance experience and Vox maintained gains that could nearly double its 2023 seat total. Forecasters assign the PP-Vox bloc majority odds above 98 percent in simulations, reflecting stable vote-share leads of roughly 5–7 points over the left. Limited time remains before election day for major reversals, though shifts in regional turnout or unforeseen events could still narrow the projected margin.