Trader consensus has settled at near-certainty that none of the resolution triggers occurred during September. Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine produced continued strikes and diplomatic activity without producing a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, an Israel-Hamas ceasefire, or a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting. U.S. monetary policy remained steady, with no 50-basis-point or larger federal funds rate cut and no reported moves against Federal Reserve leadership. Other listed conditions, such as changes in specific governorships, also went unmet. Scheduled events including sports tournaments, summits, and regional elections unfolded without crossing any of the predefined thresholds, reinforcing the market's assessment that the month stayed below the bar for resolution to the alternative outcome. Late developments in energy markets or bilateral talks could still prompt review if they retroactively satisfy criteria before final settlement.