Trader consensus prices "No" at 72.5% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall, 10kt+ meteor strike, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or M8.5+ earthquake through mid-April, per NOAA/NHC, USGS, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, and NASA monitoring. Recent M7.4 Indonesia quake on April 1 fell short of the magnitude threshold, while Colorado State University's April outlook forecasts below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity under weak La Niña conditions, reducing Cat 5 landfall odds. Historical baselines underscore rarity—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average once per decade, M8.5+ quakes globally every 5–10 years—leaving eight months of typical risks unlikely to trigger resolution. NOAA's May seasonal update could refine hurricane probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDisastro naturale nel 2026?
Disastro naturale nel 2026?
Sì
$204,728 Vol.
$204,728 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$204,728 Vol.
$204,728 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus prices "No" at 72.5% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall, 10kt+ meteor strike, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or M8.5+ earthquake through mid-April, per NOAA/NHC, USGS, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, and NASA monitoring. Recent M7.4 Indonesia quake on April 1 fell short of the magnitude threshold, while Colorado State University's April outlook forecasts below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity under weak La Niña conditions, reducing Cat 5 landfall odds. Historical baselines underscore rarity—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average once per decade, M8.5+ quakes globally every 5–10 years—leaving eight months of typical risks unlikely to trigger resolution. NOAA's May seasonal update could refine hurricane probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Mercato aperto: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$204,728Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus prices "No" at 72.5% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall, 10kt+ meteor strike, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or M8.5+ earthquake through mid-April, per NOAA/NHC, USGS, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, and NASA monitoring. Recent M7.4 Indonesia quake on April 1 fell short of the magnitude threshold, while Colorado State University's April outlook forecasts below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity under weak La Niña conditions, reducing Cat 5 landfall odds. Historical baselines underscore rarity—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average once per decade, M8.5+ quakes globally every 5–10 years—leaving eight months of typical risks unlikely to trigger resolution. NOAA's May seasonal update could refine hurricane probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$204,728Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 72.5% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall, 10kt+ meteor strike, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or M8.5+ earthquake through mid-April, per NOAA/NHC, USGS, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, and NASA monitoring. Recent M7.4 Indonesia quake on April 1 fell short of the magnitude threshold, while Colorado State University's April outlook forecasts below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity under weak La Niña conditions, reducing Cat 5 landfall odds. Historical baselines underscore rarity—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average once per decade, M8.5+ quakes globally every 5–10 years—leaving eight months of typical risks unlikely to trigger resolution. NOAA's May seasonal update could refine hurricane probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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