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Geopolitica·Affari Mondiali

Iran nuclear test in 2025?

Market icon
Geopolitica·Affari Mondiali

Iran nuclear test in 2025?

Ended: dic 31, 2025

dic 31

Ended: dic 31, 2025

dic 31

<1% probabilità
Polymarket

$204,657 Vol.

<1% probabilità
Polymarket

$204,657 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test between June 13 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test between June 13 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$204,657
Data di fine
31 dic 2025
Mercato aperto
Jun 14, 2025, 8:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test between June 13 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Esito proposto: No

Nessuna contestazione

Esito finale: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test between June 13 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test between June 13 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$204,657
Data di fine
31 dic 2025
Mercato aperto
Jun 14, 2025, 8:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test between June 13 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Esito proposto: No

Nessuna contestazione

Esito finale: No

Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"Iran nuclear test in 2025?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni "Sì" o "No" in base a se credono che questo evento accadrà. La probabilità attuale aggregata è 0% per "Yes". Ad esempio, se "Sì" è quotato a 0¢, il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 0% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Iran nuclear test in 2025?" ha generato $204.7K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Jun 15, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Iran nuclear test in 2025?", scegli semplicemente se ritieni che la risposta sia "Sì" o "No". Ogni lato ha un prezzo corrente che riflette la probabilità implicita del mercato. Inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se compri azioni "Sì" e l'esito si risolve come "Sì", ogni azione paga $1. Se si risolve come "No", le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

La probabilità attuale per "Iran nuclear test in 2025?" è 0% per "Yes". Questo significa che la comunità Polymarket attualmente ritiene che ci sia una probabilità di 0% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale basandosi sulle operazioni effettive, fornendo un segnale continuamente aggiornato di ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Iran nuclear test in 2025?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.