Escalating Houthi threats and a failed April 12 boarding attempt near Bab al-Mandeb Strait have sharpened focus on Red Sea shipping vulnerabilities, driving war risk insurance premiums to 0.2-1% of hull value amid partial Cape of Good Hope rerouting. After halting attacks post-October 2025 Gaza ceasefire, March missile strikes on Israel revived fears, bolstering Baltic Dry Index to 2,567 points on April 17—up 24% month-to-date—and steadying Drewry World Container Index near $2,300 per FEU on Shanghai-Europe lanes. Polymarket trader consensus reflects low near-term success odds despite volume exceeding $175,000, with U.S. naval patrols and Iran tensions as key swing factors ahead of potential April 30 resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoGli Houthi mirano con successo alla spedizione entro...?
Gli Houthi mirano con successo alla spedizione entro...?
$175,326 Vol.
30 apr 2026
30 aprile
14%
$175,326 Vol.
30 aprile
$48,463 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating Houthi threats and a failed April 12 boarding attempt near Bab al-Mandeb Strait have sharpened focus on Red Sea shipping vulnerabilities, driving war risk insurance premiums to 0.2-1% of hull value amid partial Cape of Good Hope rerouting. After halting attacks post-October 2025 Gaza ceasefire, March missile strikes on Israel revived fears, bolstering Baltic Dry Index to 2,567 points on April 17—up 24% month-to-date—and steadying Drewry World Container Index near $2,300 per FEU on Shanghai-Europe lanes. Polymarket trader consensus reflects low near-term success odds despite volume exceeding $175,000, with U.S. naval patrols and Iran tensions as key swing factors ahead of potential April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 24, 2026, 8:37 PM ET
Volume
$175,326Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 8:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating Houthi threats and a failed April 12 boarding attempt near Bab al-Mandeb Strait have sharpened focus on Red Sea shipping vulnerabilities, driving war risk insurance premiums to 0.2-1% of hull value amid partial Cape of Good Hope rerouting. After halting attacks post-October 2025 Gaza ceasefire, March missile strikes on Israel revived fears, bolstering Baltic Dry Index to 2,567 points on April 17—up 24% month-to-date—and steadying Drewry World Container Index near $2,300 per FEU on Shanghai-Europe lanes. Polymarket trader consensus reflects low near-term success odds despite volume exceeding $175,000, with U.S. naval patrols and Iran tensions as key swing factors ahead of potential April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$175,326Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 8:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating Houthi threats and a failed April 12 boarding attempt near Bab al-Mandeb Strait have sharpened focus on Red Sea shipping vulnerabilities, driving war risk insurance premiums to 0.2-1% of hull value amid partial Cape of Good Hope rerouting. After halting attacks post-October 2025 Gaza ceasefire, March missile strikes on Israel revived fears, bolstering Baltic Dry Index to 2,567 points on April 17—up 24% month-to-date—and steadying Drewry World Container Index near $2,300 per FEU on Shanghai-Europe lanes. Polymarket trader consensus reflects low near-term success odds despite volume exceeding $175,000, with U.S. naval patrols and Iran tensions as key swing factors ahead of potential April 30 resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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