Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a sub-$6,000 S&P 500 close by year-end 2026 at 31.5% implied probability, edging out the $7,000–$7,500 range at 22.5%, reflecting competitive dynamics amid March's 5% index drop from escalating Middle East tensions, surging oil prices, and March CPI inflation jumping to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024. Current levels near 7,126 follow a partial Q1 earnings rebound projecting 13% growth, but persistent 4.3–4.4% unemployment and the Fed's March dot plot holding year-end fed funds at 3.4% signal limited rate relief, capping upside versus recession risks. Key differentiators include sustained tech earnings versus inflation-fueled tightening; upcoming FOMC meetings and full-year EPS forecasts around 15% growth for 2026 will test this balance.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWhat will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
<$6,000 32%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,000-$6,500 14%
$6,500-$7,000 14%
$19,269 Vol.
$19,269 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
32%
$6,000-$6,500
14%
$6,500-$7,000
14%
$7,000-$7,500
23%
$7,500-$8,000
10%
>$8,000
12%
<$6,000 32%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,000-$6,500 14%
$6,500-$7,000 14%
$19,269 Vol.
$19,269 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$11,578 Vol.
32%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,351 Vol.
14%
$6,500-$7,000
$1,969 Vol.
14%
$7,000-$7,500
$923 Vol.
23%
$7,500-$8,000
$1,654 Vol.
10%
>$8,000
$1,794 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a sub-$6,000 S&P 500 close by year-end 2026 at 31.5% implied probability, edging out the $7,000–$7,500 range at 22.5%, reflecting competitive dynamics amid March's 5% index drop from escalating Middle East tensions, surging oil prices, and March CPI inflation jumping to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024. Current levels near 7,126 follow a partial Q1 earnings rebound projecting 13% growth, but persistent 4.3–4.4% unemployment and the Fed's March dot plot holding year-end fed funds at 3.4% signal limited rate relief, capping upside versus recession risks. Key differentiators include sustained tech earnings versus inflation-fueled tightening; upcoming FOMC meetings and full-year EPS forecasts around 15% growth for 2026 will test this balance.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volume
$19,269Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a sub-$6,000 S&P 500 close by year-end 2026 at 31.5% implied probability, edging out the $7,000–$7,500 range at 22.5%, reflecting competitive dynamics amid March's 5% index drop from escalating Middle East tensions, surging oil prices, and March CPI inflation jumping to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024. Current levels near 7,126 follow a partial Q1 earnings rebound projecting 13% growth, but persistent 4.3–4.4% unemployment and the Fed's March dot plot holding year-end fed funds at 3.4% signal limited rate relief, capping upside versus recession risks. Key differentiators include sustained tech earnings versus inflation-fueled tightening; upcoming FOMC meetings and full-year EPS forecasts around 15% growth for 2026 will test this balance.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$19,269Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a sub-$6,000 S&P 500 close by year-end 2026 at 31.5% implied probability, edging out the $7,000–$7,500 range at 22.5%, reflecting competitive dynamics amid March's 5% index drop from escalating Middle East tensions, surging oil prices, and March CPI inflation jumping to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024. Current levels near 7,126 follow a partial Q1 earnings rebound projecting 13% growth, but persistent 4.3–4.4% unemployment and the Fed's March dot plot holding year-end fed funds at 3.4% signal limited rate relief, capping upside versus recession risks. Key differentiators include sustained tech earnings versus inflation-fueled tightening; upcoming FOMC meetings and full-year EPS forecasts around 15% growth for 2026 will test this balance.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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