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Teknologi·AI

New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?

icon for New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?
Teknologi·AI

New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?

$285,417 Vol.

Jun 12, 2026
Polymarket

$285,417 Vol.

Polymarket

June 12

$778 Vol.

12%

June 19

$1,030 Vol.

32%

June 30

$23,489 Vol.

76%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases or makes available a new Gemini reasoning flagship model to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying models must be positioned by Google as a next-generation, reasoning-focused flagship within the Gemini model line. For example, qualifying models include newly released or newly made generally available (GA) reasoning-focused flagship models (e.g, Gemini 3.1 GA), or any new Pro, Deep Think, or Ultra variants (e.g., Gemini 3.2 Pro, Gemini 3.4 Deep Think, Gemini 4 Ultra). Models explicitly positioned for speed, efficiency, or low-cost inference that compromise reasoning capability will NOT qualify. This includes, but is not limited to, variants such as Gemini Flash, Flash-lite, Nano, or similar lightweight or latency-optimized models, even if released under a new Gemini version number. Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under a qualifying Gemini version number. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s recent AI advancements center on iterative upgrades to its Gemini family, with the May 2026 I/O conference introducing Gemini 3.5 Flash as the new default model optimized for agentic workflows, complex coding, and long-horizon reasoning tasks that outperform prior versions on benchmarks like Terminal-Bench. Earlier in 2026, the Gemini 3 Deep Think mode launched for advanced subscribers, emphasizing deliberate “System 2” reasoning for scientific and engineering challenges. These follow the 2025 rollout of Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking and Gemini 3, positioning Google competitively against other labs’ reasoning-focused releases. Traders are watching the scheduled June rollout of Gemini 3.5 Pro and ongoing API expansions, which could clarify timelines for the next dedicated flagship reasoning model.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases or makes available a new Gemini reasoning flagship model to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Qualifying models must be positioned by Google as a next-generation, reasoning-focused flagship within the Gemini model line. For example, qualifying models include newly released or newly made generally available (GA) reasoning-focused flagship models (e.g, Gemini 3.1 GA), or any new Pro, Deep Think, or Ultra variants (e.g., Gemini 3.2 Pro, Gemini 3.4 Deep Think, Gemini 4 Ultra).

Models explicitly positioned for speed, efficiency, or low-cost inference that compromise reasoning capability will NOT qualify. This includes, but is not limited to, variants such as Gemini Flash, Flash-lite, Nano, or similar lightweight or latency-optimized models, even if released under a new Gemini version number.

Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under a qualifying Gemini version number.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$285,417
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jun 2, 2026, 9:25 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases or makes available a new Gemini reasoning flagship model to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying models must be positioned by Google as a next-generation, reasoning-focused flagship within the Gemini model line. For example, qualifying models include newly released or newly made generally available (GA) reasoning-focused flagship models (e.g, Gemini 3.1 GA), or any new Pro, Deep Think, or Ultra variants (e.g., Gemini 3.2 Pro, Gemini 3.4 Deep Think, Gemini 4 Ultra). Models explicitly positioned for speed, efficiency, or low-cost inference that compromise reasoning capability will NOT qualify. This includes, but is not limited to, variants such as Gemini Flash, Flash-lite, Nano, or similar lightweight or latency-optimized models, even if released under a new Gemini version number. Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under a qualifying Gemini version number. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases or makes available a new Gemini reasoning flagship model to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying models must be positioned by Google as a next-generation, reasoning-focused flagship within the Gemini model line. For example, qualifying models include newly released or newly made generally available (GA) reasoning-focused flagship models (e.g, Gemini 3.1 GA), or any new Pro, Deep Think, or Ultra variants (e.g., Gemini 3.2 Pro, Gemini 3.4 Deep Think, Gemini 4 Ultra). Models explicitly positioned for speed, efficiency, or low-cost inference that compromise reasoning capability will NOT qualify. This includes, but is not limited to, variants such as Gemini Flash, Flash-lite, Nano, or similar lightweight or latency-optimized models, even if released under a new Gemini version number. Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under a qualifying Gemini version number. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s recent AI advancements center on iterative upgrades to its Gemini family, with the May 2026 I/O conference introducing Gemini 3.5 Flash as the new default model optimized for agentic workflows, complex coding, and long-horizon reasoning tasks that outperform prior versions on benchmarks like Terminal-Bench. Earlier in 2026, the Gemini 3 Deep Think mode launched for advanced subscribers, emphasizing deliberate “System 2” reasoning for scientific and engineering challenges. These follow the 2025 rollout of Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking and Gemini 3, positioning Google competitively against other labs’ reasoning-focused releases. Traders are watching the scheduled June rollout of Gemini 3.5 Pro and ongoing API expansions, which could clarify timelines for the next dedicated flagship reasoning model.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases or makes available a new Gemini reasoning flagship model to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Qualifying models must be positioned by Google as a next-generation, reasoning-focused flagship within the Gemini model line. For example, qualifying models include newly released or newly made generally available (GA) reasoning-focused flagship models (e.g, Gemini 3.1 GA), or any new Pro, Deep Think, or Ultra variants (e.g., Gemini 3.2 Pro, Gemini 3.4 Deep Think, Gemini 4 Ultra).

Models explicitly positioned for speed, efficiency, or low-cost inference that compromise reasoning capability will NOT qualify. This includes, but is not limited to, variants such as Gemini Flash, Flash-lite, Nano, or similar lightweight or latency-optimized models, even if released under a new Gemini version number.

Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under a qualifying Gemini version number.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$285,417
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jun 2, 2026, 9:25 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases or makes available a new Gemini reasoning flagship model to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying models must be positioned by Google as a next-generation, reasoning-focused flagship within the Gemini model line. For example, qualifying models include newly released or newly made generally available (GA) reasoning-focused flagship models (e.g, Gemini 3.1 GA), or any new Pro, Deep Think, or Ultra variants (e.g., Gemini 3.2 Pro, Gemini 3.4 Deep Think, Gemini 4 Ultra). Models explicitly positioned for speed, efficiency, or low-cost inference that compromise reasoning capability will NOT qualify. This includes, but is not limited to, variants such as Gemini Flash, Flash-lite, Nano, or similar lightweight or latency-optimized models, even if released under a new Gemini version number. Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under a qualifying Gemini version number. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 7 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "June 30" di 76%, diikuti oleh "June 19" di 33%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 76¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 76% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?" telah menghasilkan $285.4K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Apr 30, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?," jelajahi 7 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?" adalah "June 30" di 76%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 76% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "June 19" di 33%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.