NATO’s Article 5 collective-defense clause has remained uninvoked since 2001 because no armed attack meeting the treaty threshold has struck alliance territory. Russia’s war in Ukraine has produced only lower-level hybrid incidents, such as the September 2025 drone incursions over Poland and airspace violations near Estonia; these prompted Article 4 consultations and defensive measures like Operation Eastern Sentry rather than full activation. Alliance leaders have explicitly ruled out invocation for comparable episodes near Turkey, while forward deployments and air policing maintain deterrence without crossing into collective defense. Warnings of potential Russian probes by 2027–2029 underscore that current frictions stay contained, supporting the 88 percent trader consensus that no qualifying event will occur before the end of 2026.