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Politik·Kebijakan Luar Negeri

NATO article 5 before 2027?

Market icon
Politik·Kebijakan Luar Negeri

NATO article 5 before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

15% peluang
Polymarket

$58,122 Vol.

15% peluang
Polymarket

$58,122 Vol.

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.Trader consensus prices "No" at 85.5% implied probability for NATO invoking Article 5 before 2027, reflecting the alliance's stringent threshold—an armed attack on a member requiring unanimous consensus—and the absence of qualifying incidents amid Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine. Recent developments reinforce this positioning: on March 5, 2026, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte dismissed Article 5 discussions after Turkey intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile, deeming it insufficient for collective defense activation. Russia's forces remain depleted from four years of attrition in Ukraine, with no spillover to NATO territory like the Baltics or Poland, bolstered by European allies' 20% defense spending surge in 2025. Warnings of potential Russian tests post-2027 underscore current deterrence, though hybrid threats or miscalculations could shift odds.

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Volume
$58,122
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 1:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.Trader consensus prices "No" at 85.5% implied probability for NATO invoking Article 5 before 2027, reflecting the alliance's stringent threshold—an armed attack on a member requiring unanimous consensus—and the absence of qualifying incidents amid Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine. Recent developments reinforce this positioning: on March 5, 2026, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte dismissed Article 5 discussions after Turkey intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile, deeming it insufficient for collective defense activation. Russia's forces remain depleted from four years of attrition in Ukraine, with no spillover to NATO territory like the Baltics or Poland, bolstered by European allies' 20% defense spending surge in 2025. Warnings of potential Russian tests post-2027 underscore current deterrence, though hybrid threats or miscalculations could shift odds.

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Volume
$58,122
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 1:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"NATO article 5 before 2027?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 14% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 14¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 14% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "NATO article 5 before 2027?" telah menghasilkan $58.1K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Nov 5, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "NATO article 5 before 2027?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "NATO article 5 before 2027?" adalah 14% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 14% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "NATO article 5 before 2027?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.