Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for the MO-08 House seat due to the district's extreme Republican lean—Cook PVI R+27, the nation's 7th most GOP-friendly—and his consistent landslide victories, including 76% in the 2024 general and 82% in the prior primary. Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball underscore the lack of competitive threat, amplified by Smith's Ways and Means chairmanship. Recent April 21 reports highlight primary challengers like GOP's Gordon Heslop and multiple Democrats (Frank Barnitz, Chris Reichard, others), criticizing debt and local funding, but no polling shows traction ahead of the August 4 primaries. Scenarios shifting odds include a GOP primary upset, Smith scandal, or health issue, though barriers remain high in this safe seat.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMO-08 House Election Winner
MO-08 House Election Winner
$26,813 Vol.
$26,813 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
6%
$26,813 Vol.
$26,813 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$16,612 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$10,201 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for the MO-08 House seat due to the district's extreme Republican lean—Cook PVI R+27, the nation's 7th most GOP-friendly—and his consistent landslide victories, including 76% in the 2024 general and 82% in the prior primary. Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball underscore the lack of competitive threat, amplified by Smith's Ways and Means chairmanship. Recent April 21 reports highlight primary challengers like GOP's Gordon Heslop and multiple Democrats (Frank Barnitz, Chris Reichard, others), criticizing debt and local funding, but no polling shows traction ahead of the August 4 primaries. Scenarios shifting odds include a GOP primary upset, Smith scandal, or health issue, though barriers remain high in this safe seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$26,813Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for the MO-08 House seat due to the district's extreme Republican lean—Cook PVI R+27, the nation's 7th most GOP-friendly—and his consistent landslide victories, including 76% in the 2024 general and 82% in the prior primary. Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball underscore the lack of competitive threat, amplified by Smith's Ways and Means chairmanship. Recent April 21 reports highlight primary challengers like GOP's Gordon Heslop and multiple Democrats (Frank Barnitz, Chris Reichard, others), criticizing debt and local funding, but no polling shows traction ahead of the August 4 primaries. Scenarios shifting odds include a GOP primary upset, Smith scandal, or health issue, though barriers remain high in this safe seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,813Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for the MO-08 House seat due to the district's extreme Republican lean—Cook PVI R+27, the nation's 7th most GOP-friendly—and his consistent landslide victories, including 76% in the 2024 general and 82% in the prior primary. Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball underscore the lack of competitive threat, amplified by Smith's Ways and Means chairmanship. Recent April 21 reports highlight primary challengers like GOP's Gordon Heslop and multiple Democrats (Frank Barnitz, Chris Reichard, others), criticizing debt and local funding, but no polling shows traction ahead of the August 4 primaries. Scenarios shifting odds include a GOP primary upset, Smith scandal, or health issue, though barriers remain high in this safe seat.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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