Recent observational data from agencies including Copernicus, NOAA, and UAH satellite records place May 2026 global surface and lower-tropospheric temperature anomalies near 1.1–1.2°C above the 1951–1980 baseline, consistent with the ongoing long-term warming trend amid neutral to weakly developing El Niño conditions. This stability, without major volcanic cooling or extreme ENSO-driven spikes, underpins the market’s 97% implied probability for the 1.10–1.14°C bin. Historical patterns show monthly values rarely deviate sharply from the preceding several months absent unusual forcings, and current model runs project continuation of this range. A rapid shift in ENSO state or revised dataset adjustments could alter the final figure, though such changes appear unlikely based on the latest monitoring.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 97.2%
<1.10ºC 1.5%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$192,174 Vol.
$192,174 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 97.2%
<1.10ºC 1.5%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$192,174 Vol.
$192,174 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$61,006 Vol.
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
$24,254 Vol.
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
$37,111 Vol.
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$23,001 Vol.
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$20,400 Vol.
<1%
>1.29ºC
$26,403 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from agencies including Copernicus, NOAA, and UAH satellite records place May 2026 global surface and lower-tropospheric temperature anomalies near 1.1–1.2°C above the 1951–1980 baseline, consistent with the ongoing long-term warming trend amid neutral to weakly developing El Niño conditions. This stability, without major volcanic cooling or extreme ENSO-driven spikes, underpins the market’s 97% implied probability for the 1.10–1.14°C bin. Historical patterns show monthly values rarely deviate sharply from the preceding several months absent unusual forcings, and current model runs project continuation of this range. A rapid shift in ENSO state or revised dataset adjustments could alter the final figure, though such changes appear unlikely based on the latest monitoring.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$192,174Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 10, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from agencies including Copernicus, NOAA, and UAH satellite records place May 2026 global surface and lower-tropospheric temperature anomalies near 1.1–1.2°C above the 1951–1980 baseline, consistent with the ongoing long-term warming trend amid neutral to weakly developing El Niño conditions. This stability, without major volcanic cooling or extreme ENSO-driven spikes, underpins the market’s 97% implied probability for the 1.10–1.14°C bin. Historical patterns show monthly values rarely deviate sharply from the preceding several months absent unusual forcings, and current model runs project continuation of this range. A rapid shift in ENSO state or revised dataset adjustments could alter the final figure, though such changes appear unlikely based on the latest monitoring.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$192,174Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 10, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from agencies including Copernicus, NOAA, and UAH satellite records place May 2026 global surface and lower-tropospheric temperature anomalies near 1.1–1.2°C above the 1951–1980 baseline, consistent with the ongoing long-term warming trend amid neutral to weakly developing El Niño conditions. This stability, without major volcanic cooling or extreme ENSO-driven spikes, underpins the market’s 97% implied probability for the 1.10–1.14°C bin. Historical patterns show monthly values rarely deviate sharply from the preceding several months absent unusual forcings, and current model runs project continuation of this range. A rapid shift in ENSO state or revised dataset adjustments could alter the final figure, though such changes appear unlikely based on the latest monitoring.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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