Emmanuel Macron’s second presidential term runs until May 2027 under France’s two-consecutive-term limit, with the first round of the next election scheduled for April 2027. He has repeatedly stated his intention to complete the mandate and has ruled out calling a further National Assembly dissolution in the months ahead. Persistent parliamentary deadlock, low approval ratings near 16 percent, budget negotiations, and elevated fuel prices have fueled speculation, yet constitutional barriers, the absence of majority support for removal, and recent public comments dismissing early exit scenarios keep the implied probability of departure by December 31, 2026, low among traders. Scheduled events through early 2027, including budget votes and any coalition shifts, remain the main variables that could alter positioning before the transition.