The recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s New York retrial on the Jessica Mann rape charge, declared May 15 after a deadlocked jury, has solidified trader sentiment around “No Prison Time” at 76% implied probability. Prosecutors must now decide by late June whether to pursue a fourth attempt, introducing further delays and uncertainty for additional convictions. Weinstein, already serving a 16-year California sentence from his 2022 conviction while appealing that verdict, faces separate pending New York sentencing on another count but benefits from his advanced age, documented health issues, and the high bar for retrials in closely watched cases. Historical patterns of overturned or limited outcomes in his proceedings, combined with ongoing appeals, reinforce the market’s view that significant new prison time remains unlikely in the near term.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWaktu penjara Harvey Weinstein?
Waktu penjara Harvey Weinstein?
Tanpa Hukuman Penjara 76.0%
20-30 years 8.1%
10-20 tahun 6.2%
<5 tahun 3.9%
$1,057,263 Vol.
$1,057,263 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
Tanpa Hukuman Penjara
76%
<5 tahun
4%
5-10 tahun
2%
10-20 tahun
6%
20-30 years
8%
Lebih dari 30 tahun
3%
Tanpa Hukuman Penjara 76.0%
20-30 years 8.1%
10-20 tahun 6.2%
<5 tahun 3.9%
$1,057,263 Vol.
$1,057,263 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
Tanpa Hukuman Penjara
$368,864 Vol.
76%
<5 tahun
$138,666 Vol.
4%
5-10 tahun
$88,360 Vol.
2%
10-20 tahun
$167,420 Vol.
6%
20-30 years
$210,666 Vol.
8%
Lebih dari 30 tahun
$83,288 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s New York retrial on the Jessica Mann rape charge, declared May 15 after a deadlocked jury, has solidified trader sentiment around “No Prison Time” at 76% implied probability. Prosecutors must now decide by late June whether to pursue a fourth attempt, introducing further delays and uncertainty for additional convictions. Weinstein, already serving a 16-year California sentence from his 2022 conviction while appealing that verdict, faces separate pending New York sentencing on another count but benefits from his advanced age, documented health issues, and the high bar for retrials in closely watched cases. Historical patterns of overturned or limited outcomes in his proceedings, combined with ongoing appeals, reinforce the market’s view that significant new prison time remains unlikely in the near term.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
Volume
$1,057,263Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2025Pasar Dibuka
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s New York retrial on the Jessica Mann rape charge, declared May 15 after a deadlocked jury, has solidified trader sentiment around “No Prison Time” at 76% implied probability. Prosecutors must now decide by late June whether to pursue a fourth attempt, introducing further delays and uncertainty for additional convictions. Weinstein, already serving a 16-year California sentence from his 2022 conviction while appealing that verdict, faces separate pending New York sentencing on another count but benefits from his advanced age, documented health issues, and the high bar for retrials in closely watched cases. Historical patterns of overturned or limited outcomes in his proceedings, combined with ongoing appeals, reinforce the market’s view that significant new prison time remains unlikely in the near term.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,057,263Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2025Pasar Dibuka
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s New York retrial on the Jessica Mann rape charge, declared May 15 after a deadlocked jury, has solidified trader sentiment around “No Prison Time” at 76% implied probability. Prosecutors must now decide by late June whether to pursue a fourth attempt, introducing further delays and uncertainty for additional convictions. Weinstein, already serving a 16-year California sentence from his 2022 conviction while appealing that verdict, faces separate pending New York sentencing on another count but benefits from his advanced age, documented health issues, and the high bar for retrials in closely watched cases. Historical patterns of overturned or limited outcomes in his proceedings, combined with ongoing appeals, reinforce the market’s view that significant new prison time remains unlikely in the near term.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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