The Federal Reserve's statutory independence under the Federal Reserve Act and its entrenched role in monetary policy, Treasury yields, and financial stability underpin the 96.4% market-implied probability against abolition before 2027. Trader consensus reflects the stalling of 2025 legislative proposals such as the Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act in committee, with political focus instead on Fed leadership transitions and rate path expectations rather than institutional repeal. No credible momentum exists across parties to dismantle the central bank amid ongoing inflation and labor data releases. Tail risks include an unprecedented systemic crisis or radical political realignment, though these remain remote given institutional safeguards and the absence of functional alternatives for managing economic cycles.