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icon for EU debt downgrade before 2027?

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

icon for EU debt downgrade before 2027?

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

17% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
17% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against any EU sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, driven by stabilized credit ratings across the Eurozone despite elevated debt-to-GDP ratios averaging above 80%. Recent Moody's downgrade of Belgium to A1 on April 17 underscores fiscal vulnerabilities in high-deficit nations, yet this isolated action contrasts with Fitch's neutral outlook for Western European sovereigns in 2026 and upgrades for Italy, Spain, and Portugal amid stronger growth trajectories. New EU fiscal rules enforce multi-year consolidation plans, bolstering debt sustainability, while ECB monetary policy supports funding costs via steady rates. Key catalysts include upcoming S&P and Fitch reviews, Q2 GDP data, and June ECB meeting, with low recession risks limiting further negative actions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,344
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 7, 2026, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against any EU sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, driven by stabilized credit ratings across the Eurozone despite elevated debt-to-GDP ratios averaging above 80%. Recent Moody's downgrade of Belgium to A1 on April 17 underscores fiscal vulnerabilities in high-deficit nations, yet this isolated action contrasts with Fitch's neutral outlook for Western European sovereigns in 2026 and upgrades for Italy, Spain, and Portugal amid stronger growth trajectories. New EU fiscal rules enforce multi-year consolidation plans, bolstering debt sustainability, while ECB monetary policy supports funding costs via steady rates. Key catalysts include upcoming S&P and Fitch reviews, Q2 GDP data, and June ECB meeting, with low recession risks limiting further negative actions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,344
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 7, 2026, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"EU debt downgrade before 2027?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 20% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 20¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 20% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"EU debt downgrade before 2027?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Jan 7, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "EU debt downgrade before 2027?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "EU debt downgrade before 2027?" adalah 20% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 20% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "EU debt downgrade before 2027?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.