**Recent affirmations by major agencies underscore the resilience of EU credit quality.** As of September 2026, Moody’s reaffirmed the EU’s Aaa rating with a stable outlook, citing firm member-state backing and institutional safeguards, while Scope and Fitch maintain AAA with stable trends; S&P holds AA+ stable. These views reflect the EU’s direct budgetary obligations and the weighted support from high-rated contributors such as Germany, which together cover debt service even as outstanding borrowing approaches €739 billion and could near €1 trillion by end-2027 from NGEU disbursements, defense programs, and Ukraine support. **Market-implied odds of 75% against a downgrade before 2027 align with the absence of near-term triggers.** Although rising debt-service costs and fiscal pressures in key members like France (recently downgraded by Scope) warrant monitoring, the joint-and-several framework, own-resources ceiling, and upcoming 2028–2034 MFF negotiations provide buffers. Traders price in low probability of a rating action in the remaining months of 2026 absent a sharp deterioration in core sovereigns or institutional cohesion.