Traders assign a 99.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of visible large-scale amphibious preparations, logistics surges, or force concentrations that would precede such an operation. U.S. intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI report, indicate Chinese leaders currently favor gray-zone coercion through maritime patrols, air incursions, and live-fire drills rather than direct military action, consistent with ongoing activities around the strait. Taiwan’s recent Han Kuang exercises emphasized defensive resilience, reservist mobilization, and drone capabilities without triggering corresponding Chinese escalations. While an accident, miscalculation during patrols, or abrupt leadership shift could theoretically alter the timeline, established patterns and capability gaps make any near-term offensive highly improbable within the resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui<1% peluang
$1,911,998 Vol.
$1,911,998 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<1% peluang
$1,911,998 Vol.
$1,911,998 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of visible large-scale amphibious preparations, logistics surges, or force concentrations that would precede such an operation. U.S. intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI report, indicate Chinese leaders currently favor gray-zone coercion through maritime patrols, air incursions, and live-fire drills rather than direct military action, consistent with ongoing activities around the strait. Taiwan’s recent Han Kuang exercises emphasized defensive resilience, reservist mobilization, and drone capabilities without triggering corresponding Chinese escalations. While an accident, miscalculation during patrols, or abrupt leadership shift could theoretically alter the timeline, established patterns and capability gaps make any near-term offensive highly improbable within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$1,911,998Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of visible large-scale amphibious preparations, logistics surges, or force concentrations that would precede such an operation. U.S. intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI report, indicate Chinese leaders currently favor gray-zone coercion through maritime patrols, air incursions, and live-fire drills rather than direct military action, consistent with ongoing activities around the strait. Taiwan’s recent Han Kuang exercises emphasized defensive resilience, reservist mobilization, and drone capabilities without triggering corresponding Chinese escalations. While an accident, miscalculation during patrols, or abrupt leadership shift could theoretically alter the timeline, established patterns and capability gaps make any near-term offensive highly improbable within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,911,998Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of visible large-scale amphibious preparations, logistics surges, or force concentrations that would precede such an operation. U.S. intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI report, indicate Chinese leaders currently favor gray-zone coercion through maritime patrols, air incursions, and live-fire drills rather than direct military action, consistent with ongoing activities around the strait. Taiwan’s recent Han Kuang exercises emphasized defensive resilience, reservist mobilization, and drone capabilities without triggering corresponding Chinese escalations. While an accident, miscalculation during patrols, or abrupt leadership shift could theoretically alter the timeline, established patterns and capability gaps make any near-term offensive highly improbable within the resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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