Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s current presidential term extends through 2028 under Turkey’s constitution, with the next scheduled election no earlier than May 2028 and no national vote or formal removal process set before the end of 2026. Traders price these structural and political factors into the high implied probability that he remains in office past December 31, 2026, consistent with the absence of imminent catalysts for change. Recent public appearances, including statements after cabinet meetings in early June 2026, and ongoing government actions amid opposition party disputes reinforce continuity. Speculation about health concerns or constitutional maneuvers remains unconfirmed and has not altered the timeline, while economic pressures and opposition challenges have not produced scheduled events capable of forcing an exit within the resolution window.