Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's constitutionally protected term extends to May 2028, with no snap presidential election called or viable parliamentary path to early removal under the current system, anchoring trader consensus at 89.5% against his departure by December 31, 2026. Recent public activity—including a May 4 cabinet meeting followed by a press conference and an official May 9 Europe Day message—signals robust health and leadership, dispelling unconfirmed February health rumors that briefly fueled speculation. Absent catalysts like verified health declines, major scandals, or opposition surges capable of triggering resignation or impeachment, markets reflect expectations of political continuity through year-end, consistent with Erdoğan's historical incumbency dominance.