The open seat in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, created when Republican incumbent David Schweikert withdrew to run for governor, has elevated the November 2026 contest to toss-up status across major race raters. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 69% implied probability of winning the general election, reflecting the district’s narrow partisan lean, its recent competitiveness, and a strong Democratic primary field that includes prior challenger Amish Shah and prominent contender Marlene Galán-Woods. On the Republican side, a crowded July 21 primary featuring Jay Feely, Joseph Chaplik, and John Trobough has yet to produce a clear general-election favorite, with national midterm dynamics and suburban voter turnout expected to influence the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAZ-01 House Election Winner
AZ-01 House Election Winner
BARU
BARU
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
70%
Republican Party
29%
BARU
BARU
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$175 Vol.
70%
Republican Party
$316 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, created when Republican incumbent David Schweikert withdrew to run for governor, has elevated the November 2026 contest to toss-up status across major race raters. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 69% implied probability of winning the general election, reflecting the district’s narrow partisan lean, its recent competitiveness, and a strong Democratic primary field that includes prior challenger Amish Shah and prominent contender Marlene Galán-Woods. On the Republican side, a crowded July 21 primary featuring Jay Feely, Joseph Chaplik, and John Trobough has yet to produce a clear general-election favorite, with national midterm dynamics and suburban voter turnout expected to influence the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ET
Volume
$490Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, created when Republican incumbent David Schweikert withdrew to run for governor, has elevated the November 2026 contest to toss-up status across major race raters. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 69% implied probability of winning the general election, reflecting the district’s narrow partisan lean, its recent competitiveness, and a strong Democratic primary field that includes prior challenger Amish Shah and prominent contender Marlene Galán-Woods. On the Republican side, a crowded July 21 primary featuring Jay Feely, Joseph Chaplik, and John Trobough has yet to produce a clear general-election favorite, with national midterm dynamics and suburban voter turnout expected to influence the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$490Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, created when Republican incumbent David Schweikert withdrew to run for governor, has elevated the November 2026 contest to toss-up status across major race raters. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 69% implied probability of winning the general election, reflecting the district’s narrow partisan lean, its recent competitiveness, and a strong Democratic primary field that includes prior challenger Amish Shah and prominent contender Marlene Galán-Woods. On the Republican side, a crowded July 21 primary featuring Jay Feely, Joseph Chaplik, and John Trobough has yet to produce a clear general-election favorite, with national midterm dynamics and suburban voter turnout expected to influence the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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