Copernicus Climate Change Service's latest bulletin confirms April 2026 as the joint third-warmest April on record, with a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.43°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline—equivalent to roughly 1.17°C above the 1901-2000 mean used in NOAA datasets—driving traders' 96.1% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin. Elevated sea surface temperatures, the second-highest on record outside polar regions amid persistent marine heatwaves and transitioning El Niño conditions, underpin this positioning, aligning with ERA5 reanalysis observational data. Scenarios challenging this include minor revisions in NOAA's forthcoming Global Land and Ocean Temperature Index (due mid-May), which historically varies by ±0.05°C across datasets, or unexpected cooling from aerosol effects, though model consensus favors stability.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiApril 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 96.0%
1.20–1.24ºC 2.9%
1.10–1.14ºC <1%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
$350,959 Vol.
$350,959 Vol.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
96%
1.20–1.24ºC
3%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC 96.0%
1.20–1.24ºC 2.9%
1.10–1.14ºC <1%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
$350,959 Vol.
$350,959 Vol.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$60,349 Vol.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$62,550 Vol.
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$47,914 Vol.
96%
1.20–1.24ºC
$69,519 Vol.
3%
1.25–1.29ºC
$62,660 Vol.
<1%
>1.29ºC
$47,967 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Copernicus Climate Change Service's latest bulletin confirms April 2026 as the joint third-warmest April on record, with a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.43°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline—equivalent to roughly 1.17°C above the 1901-2000 mean used in NOAA datasets—driving traders' 96.1% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin. Elevated sea surface temperatures, the second-highest on record outside polar regions amid persistent marine heatwaves and transitioning El Niño conditions, underpin this positioning, aligning with ERA5 reanalysis observational data. Scenarios challenging this include minor revisions in NOAA's forthcoming Global Land and Ocean Temperature Index (due mid-May), which historically varies by ±0.05°C across datasets, or unexpected cooling from aerosol effects, though model consensus favors stability.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$350,959Tanggal Berakhir
May 10, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Copernicus Climate Change Service's latest bulletin confirms April 2026 as the joint third-warmest April on record, with a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.43°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline—equivalent to roughly 1.17°C above the 1901-2000 mean used in NOAA datasets—driving traders' 96.1% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin. Elevated sea surface temperatures, the second-highest on record outside polar regions amid persistent marine heatwaves and transitioning El Niño conditions, underpin this positioning, aligning with ERA5 reanalysis observational data. Scenarios challenging this include minor revisions in NOAA's forthcoming Global Land and Ocean Temperature Index (due mid-May), which historically varies by ±0.05°C across datasets, or unexpected cooling from aerosol effects, though model consensus favors stability.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$350,959Tanggal Berakhir
May 10, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Copernicus Climate Change Service's latest bulletin confirms April 2026 as the joint third-warmest April on record, with a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.43°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline—equivalent to roughly 1.17°C above the 1901-2000 mean used in NOAA datasets—driving traders' 96.1% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin. Elevated sea surface temperatures, the second-highest on record outside polar regions amid persistent marine heatwaves and transitioning El Niño conditions, underpin this positioning, aligning with ERA5 reanalysis observational data. Scenarios challenging this include minor revisions in NOAA's forthcoming Global Land and Ocean Temperature Index (due mid-May), which historically varies by ±0.05°C across datasets, or unexpected cooling from aerosol effects, though model consensus favors stability.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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