Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton remains committed to the U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff against incumbent John Cornyn on May 26, driving trader consensus to a 90.4% implied probability against dropout. The March 17 ballot withdrawal deadline passed without Paxton exiting, despite his earlier conditional offer to withdraw if Senate GOP leadership advanced the SAVE Act voter ID bill—which stalled. Recent developments include Paxton's April 7 attack ad slamming Cornyn for blocking Trump priorities, an April 14 interview pledging endorsement if Cornyn wins to unify Republicans against Democrat James Talarico, and ongoing office actions like suing Houston over SB 4 immigration enforcement. Close polls show Cornyn edging Paxton 44%-43%, but historical base rates favor late-race staying power barring scandals, Trump endorsement shifts, or legal surprises in Paxton's securities fraud case.