Traders' strong consensus for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, implied at 92.5%, stems from the National Hurricane Center's latest outlook showing no active Atlantic tropical cyclones and zero formation potential over the next seven days, with routine advisories paused until May 15. Cool sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic—below the 26.5°C threshold needed for sustained development—combined with high wind shear suppress early activity, aligning with historical rarity: no continental U.S. hurricane strikes before June 1 since at least 1851 in reliable records. Below-normal 2026 season forecasts from Colorado State University reinforce this, citing weak La Niña influences. Realistic challenges include anomalously rapid western Atlantic warming or shear collapse, though model consensus deems these unlikely before June.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या तूफान 31 मई तक अमेरिका में दस्तक देगा?
क्या तूफान 31 मई तक अमेरिका में दस्तक देगा?
हाँ
$14,313 वॉल्यूम
$14,313 वॉल्यूम
31 मई, 2026
हाँ
$14,313 वॉल्यूम
$14,313 वॉल्यूम
31 मई, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Traders' strong consensus for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, implied at 92.5%, stems from the National Hurricane Center's latest outlook showing no active Atlantic tropical cyclones and zero formation potential over the next seven days, with routine advisories paused until May 15. Cool sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic—below the 26.5°C threshold needed for sustained development—combined with high wind shear suppress early activity, aligning with historical rarity: no continental U.S. hurricane strikes before June 1 since at least 1851 in reliable records. Below-normal 2026 season forecasts from Colorado State University reinforce this, citing weak La Niña influences. Realistic challenges include anomalously rapid western Atlantic warming or shear collapse, though model consensus deems these unlikely before June.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$14,313समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Traders' strong consensus for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, implied at 92.5%, stems from the National Hurricane Center's latest outlook showing no active Atlantic tropical cyclones and zero formation potential over the next seven days, with routine advisories paused until May 15. Cool sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic—below the 26.5°C threshold needed for sustained development—combined with high wind shear suppress early activity, aligning with historical rarity: no continental U.S. hurricane strikes before June 1 since at least 1851 in reliable records. Below-normal 2026 season forecasts from Colorado State University reinforce this, citing weak La Niña influences. Realistic challenges include anomalously rapid western Atlantic warming or shear collapse, though model consensus deems these unlikely before June.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
वॉल्यूम
$14,313समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' strong consensus for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, implied at 92.5%, stems from the National Hurricane Center's latest outlook showing no active Atlantic tropical cyclones and zero formation potential over the next seven days, with routine advisories paused until May 15. Cool sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic—below the 26.5°C threshold needed for sustained development—combined with high wind shear suppress early activity, aligning with historical rarity: no continental U.S. hurricane strikes before June 1 since at least 1851 in reliable records. Below-normal 2026 season forecasts from Colorado State University reinforce this, citing weak La Niña influences. Realistic challenges include anomalously rapid western Atlantic warming or shear collapse, though model consensus deems these unlikely before June.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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