Johnny Garcia holds a 60% implied probability among Polymarket traders for the open TX-35 seat, ahead of Carlos De La Cruz at 36.5%, reflecting a closely contested race in a district redrawn by Texas Republicans to favor the GOP after trading Austin-area voters for rural counties east of San Antonio. The new boundaries produced a Trump +10 margin in 2024, yet recent campaign developments—including an October 9 candidate forum on affordability, immigration, and tariffs—have highlighted Garcia’s profile as a Bexar County sheriff’s deputy emphasizing law-and-order credentials and local ties in a majority-Hispanic electorate. De La Cruz, an Air Force veteran and brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz, received a Trump visit and endorsement to shore up Republican support ahead of early voting. Analysts rate the contest Lean Republican, but trader positioning tracks polling volatility and turnout dynamics among Hispanic voters in the final weeks before November 3.