Incumbent Rep. Joe Morelle's dominant position in the D+10 New York's 25th Congressional District, reinforced by his 60.8% 2024 general election win and substantial fundraising lead ($629,000 cash on hand versus challengers' minimal totals), drives trader consensus to a 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party victory. Following the April 4 filing deadline, the June 23 Democratic primary features Morelle against Robin Wilt, Cassandra Lin Leach, and Sherita Traywick, while Republican county legislator Virginia McIntyre runs unopposed but reports no FEC fundraising. Universal Solid/Safe Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball underscore the lopsided outlook. Late-breaking scandals, a Democratic primary upset, or a strong national Republican midterm wave could shift odds, though historical retention rates for safe seats make this improbable.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाNY -25 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
NY -25 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
$14,699 वॉल्यूम
$14,699 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
94%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
6%
$14,699 वॉल्यूम
$14,699 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$6,399 वॉल्यूम
94%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$8,300 वॉल्यूम
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Joe Morelle's dominant position in the D+10 New York's 25th Congressional District, reinforced by his 60.8% 2024 general election win and substantial fundraising lead ($629,000 cash on hand versus challengers' minimal totals), drives trader consensus to a 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party victory. Following the April 4 filing deadline, the June 23 Democratic primary features Morelle against Robin Wilt, Cassandra Lin Leach, and Sherita Traywick, while Republican county legislator Virginia McIntyre runs unopposed but reports no FEC fundraising. Universal Solid/Safe Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball underscore the lopsided outlook. Late-breaking scandals, a Democratic primary upset, or a strong national Republican midterm wave could shift odds, though historical retention rates for safe seats make this improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$14,699समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Joe Morelle's dominant position in the D+10 New York's 25th Congressional District, reinforced by his 60.8% 2024 general election win and substantial fundraising lead ($629,000 cash on hand versus challengers' minimal totals), drives trader consensus to a 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party victory. Following the April 4 filing deadline, the June 23 Democratic primary features Morelle against Robin Wilt, Cassandra Lin Leach, and Sherita Traywick, while Republican county legislator Virginia McIntyre runs unopposed but reports no FEC fundraising. Universal Solid/Safe Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball underscore the lopsided outlook. Late-breaking scandals, a Democratic primary upset, or a strong national Republican midterm wave could shift odds, though historical retention rates for safe seats make this improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$14,699समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Joe Morelle's dominant position in the D+10 New York's 25th Congressional District, reinforced by his 60.8% 2024 general election win and substantial fundraising lead ($629,000 cash on hand versus challengers' minimal totals), drives trader consensus to a 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party victory. Following the April 4 filing deadline, the June 23 Democratic primary features Morelle against Robin Wilt, Cassandra Lin Leach, and Sherita Traywick, while Republican county legislator Virginia McIntyre runs unopposed but reports no FEC fundraising. Universal Solid/Safe Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball underscore the lopsided outlook. Late-breaking scandals, a Democratic primary upset, or a strong national Republican midterm wave could shift odds, though historical retention rates for safe seats make this improbable.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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